Ho hum!
Yadda yadda Fed, yadda yadda the dollar, yadda yadda oil.
Nothing matters until tomorrow at 2:15, when we get the real Fed move and the statement and the reaction to the statement. Meanwhile, we're getting our perfunctory rally but I'm not feeling the giddy heart we had to it before the last Fed meeting when the band was playing "Happy Days Are Here Again" and Cramer was foaming at the mouth for a cut which was very interesting because he points to Bear Stearns as the warning sign the Fed must act on but then tells us NOT to worry about BSC's problems spilling over – can you really get away with manipulating both the regulators AND your audience with opposite messages in the same week? Apparently you can!
Is Cramer right or is he wrong about the economy, either way he'll be able to show you the clip where he called it! I'm not here to bash Cramer, he just happens to be recognizable but this is the kind of BS we are getting from the MSM every single day and it's no wonder our markets fly up and down 100 points a day like it's nothing, the signals are confusing and dangerous and we've been forced to become momentum traders in order to keep our virtual portfolios moving forward. The only thing buy and hold gets you in this market is an ulcer!
With fundamentals out the window and a market driven by fear and greed all we can do is fasten our seatbelts and keep an eye on the road, trying to anticipate the curves ahead.
As we expected, the dollar continued to move down to our target of 76 that I set way back in August. It's at this point that we anticipate at least some effort to prop up the dollar before we'll be begging the Fed to raise rates before our savings accounts get wiped out by devaluation (and anyone who's traveled to Europe this summer knows exactly what this would mean in our daily lives). I was about to post an article about prices in Europe this summer when I came across this one from 1972 – read this and think about the prices, like the room at the Ritz going from $54 to $65, and think about the pricing now ($700) and then tell me you think you have enough for retirement!
The government says inflation has grown an average of just 4% a year since 1972, historically the lowest rate since the depression and our new Fed policy (which I advocated back in December as a way to boost the markets) is to throw money at our problems and let it burn – just remember those are your future dollars they are burning today and, as we cheer the market higher, we had better be participating because our money on the sidelines has lost 6% of it's value since Augst 15th!
Why is this not a bigger story? Why does no one seem concerned? Because the MSM likes to "yadda yadda" the bad news and keep things upbeat and cheerful. If you are in the markets and investing, then you are watching CNBC, reading the WSJ, subscribing to PSW… If you are worried about the economy and moving to safer harbors (not that I can think of one right now), then you may find other things to do with your time and money than obsess about your money all the time.
Back in August I told readers about the dirty little secret of the financial press, they are ratings whores just like every other aspect of the media, and that means they will tell you whatever you want to hear! Newsletters (like this one) are no different because we rely on subscribers to pay the bills and subscribers don't like to hear bad news any more than the average person who chooses to watch Entertainment Tonight over the Evening News does.
I've pledged not to do that and I've lost a few readers in the process but we've made a little money along the way and had some fun so I'm pretty happy overall. I love the markets and I love the economy and I love this country but – come on people – let's be realistic about our prospects! We've got some serious problems yadda, yadda, yadda and I get bored talking about them myself but a good army drills and drills and drills to be prepared for a battle that may only last a few hours after which we separate the quick from the dead. I need you guys to be quick, and to do that we need to keep vigilant, even as we party on with the markets.
From the Seinfeld "Yadda, Yadda" episode:
- George: Listen to this. Marcy comes over, she tells me that her ex-boyfriend was over late last night and yada, yada, yada, I'm really tired today.
- Jerry: Well what do you think she was tired from?
- George: Well obviously the "yada, yada."
- George: You don't think she'd yada yada sex?
- Elaine: (raises hand) I've yada yadaed sex.
- George: Really?
- Elaine: Yeah, I met this lawyer, we went to dinner, I had the lobster bisque, we went back to my apartment, yada yada yada, I never heard from him again.
- Jerry: But you yada yadaed over the best part!
- Elaine: No, I mentioned the bisque.
