I’m still on the road so I’ll keep this fairly brief.
I won’t be able to update the member spreadsheets until Tuesday as tomorrow is a travel day but there has been little changed since the ones I published on Wednesday. This does bring up an interesting point though. If you reread my recent post about virtual portfolio balance and go over the positions we had open in Wednesday’s virtual portfolio reviews I think that article would really hit home.
If we just left all those virtual portfolios completely alone since Wednesday morning (and, for the most part we did) you can run through the updated prices and see:
- The Short-Term Virtual Portfolio gained $49,130 (6.2%)
- These are profit improvements on open items, not virtual portfolio gains, which, in the STP’s case would be over 12% in just those 2 days.
- The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio gained $8,325 (2.3%)
- The $10,000 Virtual Portfolio lost $50 (-6%)
- The $25,000 Virtual Portfolio gained $2,260 (28%)
- Happy 100 lost $400 (-2%)
- Complex Spreads gained $13,220 (4.9%)
This is a great illustration of the point I was trying to make a couple of weeks ago. If we learn to balance our virtual portfolios, then wild swings in the market shouldn’t bother us, even if we go on vacation and stop trading for a few days. Sure we could have done much better had we traded those wild swings on Wednesday and Friday but we can make money any time – balance gives you control of your virtual portfolio and, by extension, control of your life so you can make time for the things that truly matter.
I often quote Charles Dow (of the DIA and founder of the WSJ), who said: "If you speculate and intend to make a fortune, you may end up broke, but if you speculate to earn a good return, you may just get rich." If we construct a virtual portfolio that brings in even a modest, reliable return, month after month, then we can afford to engage in a little speculation when it suits us. More importantly, we can afford to take the occasional break and enjoy friends and family – things we really can be thankful for in life.
Balance will continue to be our theme as long as we stay in this choppy market. I know it ALMOST looked like we were going to pop out of my trading range on Wednesday but I stuck with my bottom call made before I left for the airport in member chat and even left some GS positions uncovered. While I don’t put much stock in Friday’s action, it sure beat the alternative by a wide margin.
On the whole, it was a nice. flat bottoming sort of week but I’m not expecting any rapid recoveries this time. We should be thrilled next week with just hanging onto our 13,000-13,300 range, hopefully establishing 13,000 as a firmer floor. There were many "Santa Clause" rallies we can look back on to give us hope but I doubt it will come if we can’t hold the line at 13,000.
Have a great weekend,
– Phil
