StockJockey at 1440 Wall Street shares his thoughts on the market. In contrast to Doug Kass, the only bull market he sees is in videos predicting continual market carnage.
Kass Digs In While Bears Continue to Feast
Doug Kass is not afraid of the spotlight, and that is what he has at the moment thanks to his high profile calls that it is time to get more constructive on this market. But with consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates a little north of $45, many proprietary econometric models pointing to even lower earnings for the index and technicians like Louise Yamada warning the charts point lower, can the market be really be bought here?
I continue to expect we will get the cathartic event as Bernanke panics – he has a lot of heavy lifting to do given the Treasury Department is a shambles. And while a few wildcards remain, such as mark-to-market accounting and perhaps even an expanded role for Paul Volcker (a pipe dream?), hanging your hat on valuation, sentiment etc seems to be just more of the same stuff that has not worked for 18 months now.
Before we write off Mr. Kass, keep in mind he put together a check list – which might still leave you cold given very few of the conditions have been met.
But he is standing by his call, crossing a few off his list, and apparently is all-in, even if he was buying in scales. A brave stand, indeed:
On Monday night, I suggested on “The Kudlow Report” that the stock market could be within three days of making a 2009 bottom.
As yesterday was the third day, my forecast is now on the line.
I am not hiding from my bottom call. If anything, I feel even better today than I did on Monday evening with Sir Larry Kudlow that my expectation might prove to be accurate, particularly in the current backdrop of attractive valuations and an extremely negative sentiment reading, or, as I describe, “Irrational Non-Exuberance.” Most important, there are initial signs that several elements on my checklist are turning more positive. The Street.com
Personally I find it hard to find anything to like here…Wall Street woke up when President Obama released his Budget, and the Wall Street professionals that helped Obama get elected have now realized that they are the patsies at a table where Obama holds the cards.
This seems like a bad dream to me..and while I hope President Obama soon extends and olive branch to the Street, I am afraid that it is unlikely.
But he might smack us with the back of his other hand.
To be sure, some of you deserve to be, and apparently the rest of you are guilty by association.
Brutal.
I hope Mr. Kass is right. An up market would be change, no doubt about it.
Although Mr. Kass is no doubt encouraged, the only bull market I see is in videos like the one below.
_______________________________________
Dow 4,000?
__________________________________________________
Kass: Standing By My Bottom Call
TheStreet.com
Cramer: My Response To The White House
Mainstreet.com
