1,650 or bust!
That's the line today, along with 9,400 on the NYSE and 15,000 on the Dow. As you can see on Dave Fry's S&P chart, we had an indecisive day yesterday as rumors fly back and forth over the prospects of "tapering" by the Fed. Today's reading of the Fed minutes at 2pm are not likely to do anything other than fuel more speculation on both sides.
Globally, things are such a mess that I had to send out another depressing morning Alert to our Members titled "Market Weakness Persists – International Situation Grim." That about sums up the Global Macros for this morning, so I won't re-hash it here but I will point out this can be quickly reversed by the Fed or, more accurately, by Hilsenrath's interpretation of the Fed Minutes in the WSJ, minutes after they are released.
As to the index action, as we predicted yesterday morning, we got our weak bounces (except the Dow) to 15,130, 1,658, 3,620, 9,460 and 1,020 but we finished below on all but the RUT at 15,002, 1,652, 3,613, 9,421 and 1,028. When we get action that is that predictable, it means the bots are in charge and it also means our 5% Rule™ is ruling – so ignore it at your peril!
Also as expected, the NYMO bounced sharply higher on a down day and that means we're much more likely consolidating for a bigger breakdown than "recovering." 5% drops are usually consolidation points and 15,000 on the Dow is a tough nut to crack as well since it carries a lot of psychological weight.
On the bright side, when I said yesterday morning that you should listen to me so you can make the next $2,000 PER CONTRACT shorting the oil Futures, I didn't actually mean in one day – but that's how it worked out!
The September contract (/CLU3) died a violent death as NYMEX criminals scrambled to cancel the last of their FAKE orders, lest they accidentally cause the delivery of oil to the United States and people begin to realize what a complete scam they are running.
The October contract that we're now following in Member Chat (/CLV3) hit $107 and fell all the way to $104.50 into the 2:35 NYMEX close and that dip was good for $2,500 PER CONTRACT and this morning we even made $500 worth of Egg McMuffin money going LONG off that $104.50 line – catching a ride back to $105, before oil failed again and is currently back (8:24) at $104.50, where we're happy to go long again (inventory is at 10:30, after which we'll likely go short again).
Don't you think there must be something wrong when I can show you, day after day, how to make thousands of Dollars shorting oil? There is something wrong – it's a totally fixed market! This isn't the result of natural market forces – this is the result of criminal manipulation of oil contracts at the NYMEX and it's designed to steal YOUR money every time you fill up at the tank. We can't stop it by ourselves but, because we understand the nature of the crime, we can get our share!
You don't NEED to play the Futures to make good money (but, if you come to our Las Vegas Conference – we will show you how) – last Tuesday, right in the Morning Post (you do at least follow us on Twitter, so you don't miss this stuff, right?), I said:
We teach our Members how to play the Futures with plenty of weekly examples (oil isn't the only thing we play, of course) but now, for the laymen out there, USO has gotten cheap again, with the Oct $37 puts at $1.10 with oil at $106.50 and USO at $37.75 so you need a move down to $35.90 or lower to be in the money and that's down 5%, which would be $101 oil. That's the bet between now and October that we currently have in our Short-Term Portfolio.
Yesterday, we cashed 1/2 of that position at $1.60 for a 45% gain off that entry (you don't need the whole drop if it comes early!) and we're holding out for a $102.50 (/CL) target or better on the next batch, which should be a solid double on the rest.
I cannot emphasize how much this is a SCAM that is harming the American people – we're not running the scam, we're just betting against the nonsense and costing the scammers more money to pull it off – but it doesn't stop them – only you telling your friends and getting everyone to demand Congressional Action will be able to stop these people.
Don't worry, if we put a stop to this particular scam, we know lots and lots of other ways to make money – this one just happens to be extremely easy at the moment, so we play it. Is that wrong? It's very hard to have a moral compass when you are comparing yourself to World-Class Criminals (allegedly, of course) like Lloyd Blanfien and Jamie Dimon, who's JPM is currently (thanks, in part to your efforts!) being investigated by the Justice Department for "manipulative bidding strategies" on the power plant side of the energy trades.
Crazy day ahead with the Fed at 2pm and tomorrow and Friday are no better as they gather at Jackson Hole (sans Bernanke) for their annual conference.
Be careful out there!
