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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 03-24-16
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Topics
00:02:15: Review the futures/indexes
00:06:30: Oil talk
00:07:30: Identifying a stock's value and finding good trades – IBM example.
00:10:15: Secret to success: wait for stocks to come to your price, wait for the right setup.
00:16:00: Understand the company before you buy the stock. Buying a stock because you hear a good story – crazy!
00:17:20: Buy when cheap. Don't follow the crowd, know what your stock is worth. Price is not value.
00:19:30: What AAPL and IBM are worth.
00:20:30: IBM and natural gas (UNG) competed for trade of the year.
00:28:30: /ES (S&P futures). Finding a "fresh horse." S&P is the most realistic index. Hard to manipulate.
00:39:15: TLT chart and trade.
00:43:30: Don't pay premium.
00:44:00: /NGN6 (natural gas futures).
00:49:30: Australia LNG
00:51:00: Long on natural gas and example of using discipline to wait for a fair price. How to plan to buy lower if price moves lower, how to average in at lower prices. Start moving into a position by using small positions.
00:56:30: Looking at silver, buying silver.
00:58:30: Buying the Russell as it's lagging the other indexes.
00:59:15: Silver
01:04:00: Rejections, pullbacks, exit points.
01:09:00: TLT. England leaving the EU. Euro down, US Dollar up.
01:10:00: Reviewing open future trades.
01:16:10: Chevron. Natural gas is way too cheap. LNG, UNG.
01:20:45: Reviewing open trades: Russell, silver, Nasdaq and natural gas (a long term trade).
01:22:05: Review the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Discussion of oil and gasoline, and supply, demand, and prices. Crack spread (oil to gasoline).
01:30:30: Valero (VLO) – a little ahead of itself based on crack spread.
01:32:00: Portfolio reviews.
01:33:00: Long term portfolio. GTAT wiped out equity holders.
01:34:00: UNG, still cheap.
01:34:30: Rolling positions.
01:35:30: AAPL.
01:35:50: Oil. Dropped and brought down the indexes.
01:37:00: You have to be fast on the futures (e.g. Nasdaq).
01:38:00: Reviewing open trades and the indexes.
01:39:30: Nothing bullish about that oil report. Facts changed. Oil now dragging the market down.
01:40:30: Demonstration of a short term futures trade: Playing for a market bounce. Going long, watching lines. It's important to abandon the play when it doesn't work! Quickly.
01:47:00: Oil: Not bullish around $40, which is near the top of the range.
01:51:00: Effect of Dollar on oil prices. The supply of oil is still too high. Demand is not going up. That's where we stand.