Yellen speaks at 11:30.
That's all you need to know for the day. Williams already failed to boost the Futures at 5:15, when he gave a speech on monetary policy in Singapore when the generally doveish Fed head said:
“Despite recent financial market volatility, my overall outlook for both the U.S. and the global economy remains largely unchanged over the past few months. We took the first small step with a modest rate hike in December, and the future pace will be, as we’ve said repeatedly, gradual and thoughtful.”
“I see continued growth in the U.S., and I don’t see the global situation as dire,” Williams said. “The ability of governments and central banks to respond to their own needs while navigating global conditions may not be a miracle cure, but it offers stability.”
Things were already off to a rough start this morning as China's Shanghai Composite Index fell back below 3,000 and Oil Futures dropped back to $38.50 (/CL), where we like playing them long for a bounce with tight stops below that line. Just getting back to $39 would be good for $500 per contract – more than enough to pay for our breakfast!
We're not expecting Yellen to say anything that boosts the Dollar as she recently said that the shaky start to 2016 had not significantly changed the Fed's outlook and that outlook has since dimmed. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast, which takes a constant pulse on the economy, has fallen off alarmingly for Q1 and, as you can see from the chart – most analysts still have their heads in the clouds (or up their asses!).
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$38.50 has been good support for oil and is close enough to the $37.50 bottom of our range (detailed in Thursday's post, when we were shorting it) that it's worth a poke – especially with the OPEC meeting just two weeks away (4/14).
During last Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar we also went long on the July Natural Gas Futures (/NGN6) with 2 contracts at $2.08 and this morning they are already at $2.15 for a $700 per contract gain ($1,400) in less than a week. That's now in addition to the $400 profit we booked that day!
This week's Live Trading Webinar will be on Thursday, at 1pm, EST – we have been on a heck of a roll with our picks in March, let's try to keep it up in April!
Sorry, I have to stop the post to call out Joe Kernen, CNBC's Conservative Talking Point Machine, who is once again abusing a guest (8:47) in a discussion on wages. As we discussed yesterday, California will, over the next 6 years, raise minimum wage to $15 an hour. Grover Norquist was on earlier saying it was the end of Capitalism and Joe, as he is wont to do, parrots these talking points art every opportunity.
In this case, Joe's "clever' argument against higher wages is "If $15 an hour is good then $20 is better and why not $100, why not $500 – why not make everyone a millionaire?" This is, of course, "reductio ad absurdum", a fallacious rhetorical device for the disputation of propositions. Quite simply, a logical extreme is the relevant statement of an extreme or even preposterous position that is nonetheless consistent with the proposition in question. Thus, in so far as the logically extreme position is both relevant and untenable, it has succeeded in calling the proposition into question, at least in its stated form.
While it works very well at silencing guests who disagree with you on TV – it also reveals the gross hypocrisy of the interviewer because, if that's Joe's logic that proves lower wages are better for the economy – then why not back to $5 per hour , why not $3, why not the $1.15 it was when I was a kid?
Why not – Joe and Grover, NOTHING??? Because, on the whole, that's what the Conservatives really want – slavery! At least slaves got food, clothing, housing and health care from their "employers" – try buying those things on this take-home pay you despicable, elitist assholes!
Grover, for his part, is going around supporting the new and innovative "Gig Economy," which Hillary and Bernie would like to regulate. Why, because "gig" jobs like Uber allow employers to circumvent labor laws by calling all thier employees "contractors" – just another efficient way of funneling money away from the poor and up to the Top 1% – who write Grover's checks.
Be very careful out there, especially if you are unfortunate enough to be in the bottom 80%, because Joe and Grover and the Billionaire running for President think you have it way too easy and they are going to stop coddling you so we can finally see who's really fit enough to survive in the walled world they are building.
