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Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Tuesday – The TrumpDon’tCare Health Plan Fails America

Image result for trump health care cartoonThe good news is we'll save $33.7Bn a year. 

The bad news is that 24M people will lose health insurance for the lack of spending that extra $1,404.16 per person to give them healthier, happier, longer lives (4,000 people PER MONTH will simply die from this plan).  That's right, if someone asks you what a human life is worth to you, what it's worth to give some poor man dialysis so he can keep on living or giving a child with cancer a fighting chance and you voted for Donald Trump – make sure you tell them that $1,404.16 is where you draw the line.  

Of course the joke is that your own health care coverage will increase far more than $1,404.16 as we go back to the cost spirals we had under Bush II and that's for the 270M Americans who do have coverage so individuals will pay $380Bn MORE so Trump can say he saved $33.7Bn and, of course, he's already spent your $380Bn on a massive (and unnecessary) military build-up ($57Bn) and more tax breaks for people who are as rich as he is ($600Bn) and yes, that's a lot more than $380Bn so the rest is more deficit spending to give tax cuts to Billionaires.  

Image result for health care costs by year chartHow do people fall for this BS?  

The chart on the left illustrates everything that is wrong with US health care – the costs are out of control and not by a little – by a factor of 4 for people over 70+ and that's coming at a time when our aging baby boomers are entering that economically fatal bracket and will need their health care the most.  What a great time to pull the rug out from under them.  Hopefully your parents will die young because, if they don't, their lack of adequate, affordable health care will directly be your problem and it will no longer be some anonymous child you are pulling the plug on with your vote but your own Mom and Dad, as those $1,000/month pills they need to live busts your family budget.  

Image result for health care costs by year chartIt is a uniquely American problem that Health Care costs are out of control and the funniest thing is that the exact same companies sell the exact same equipment and the exact same drugs all over the World yet America pays 2-4 times more than the rest of the World – and we don't even get better outcomes.  In fact, US health care has slipped to LAST PLACE among industrialized nations – EVERYONE has better health care than we do and NO ONE pays even 50% of what we pay for it.

Now that Trump is declaring an "every man for himself" health care program and now that we can travel to Cuba, who outrank us in health care at 1/10th the price, I suggest forming a company that partners with the airlines and, while you go to regular doctors in the US for check-ups, any lab tests or non-emergency hospitalizations will be done in Cuba.  With the price difference between US and Cuban health care, we can fly you first class and pay for an excellent hotel while you are there and it would still be less than half of what you spend in the US!  

Related imageCanada would work as well or Mexico, but there's going to be a big wall there.  If the GOP wants to let the free market decide then we, the US customers, should vote with our feet and take our health care somewhere else.  You have to wait days and even weeks for lab work anyway – do you think it will be slower to go out of country?  

Why are we the suckers of the World when it comes to health care?  Why can't our President get us a better deal?  Why are they attacking the $1,404.16 the Government spends to keep people covered and not the $1,000,000,000,000 in overcharges we pay compared to other countries?  $1Tn is 5% of our entire GDP and works out to $3,125 per person and that's not just the 24M people who will lose their coverage but for all 320M of us.

Why?  Because 3.2M of us (the Top 1%) make a lot of money charging that extra Trillion.  In our Long-Term Portfolio, we have $3,750 worth of Express Scripts (ESRX), $4,500 worth of Lilly (LLY), $10,000 worth of Gilead (GILD) and $10,000 worth of Teva (TEVA) and we stand to make well over $30,000 under Trump's plan because it's the same old crap that made Health Care so profitable in the first place – screw the patients over and charge them ever cent they can afford.  

So what do we care if it costs us an extra $3,125 for health care coverage if we're making $30,000 on our health care stocks – that's a fair trade-off and, as you can see, we make 10x what the bottom 90% have to pay.  That's called trickle up economics – you pay more and the money trickles up to us – God bless the USA!!!  

So if you really want to benefit from the new health care program just go out and buy $30,000 worth of health care stocks and just wait for the money to pour in.  It's fair because every American has the right to buy $30,000 worth of stocks to offset the increase in their Health Care costs, right?  

Who will benefit the most from denying coverage to 24M Americans?  Health insurance stocks will do well as they are kicking off a lot of undesirables they were forced to cover under the ACA.  God knows insurance companies don't want to cover sick people – they cost money!  The TrumpDon'tCare Act will also end up paring Medicaid and, as noted in the chart above, those old people cost a ridiculous amount to keep alive.  As the great Ebenezer once said: "If they are going to die they'd best do it quickly and decrease the surplus population."  What a great Republican he was!  

MetLife (MET) is an insurance company we have our eye on.  2016 was a bad year for them but going forward we expect them to earn $5 for what are now $54 shares for a p/e of 10 and, while you wait for a p/e of 15 ($81), you collect a 3% dividend of $1.60 per year.  What I really like about them though, is the way you can discount them with options, like this:

  • Buy 1,000 shares of MET for $53.75 ($53,750)
  • Sell 10 2019 $52.50 calls for $8 ($8,000) 
  • Sell 10 2019 $47.50 puts for $5.50 ($5,500) 

That nets you into 1,000 shares for $40,250 or $40.25 per share, a 25% discount to the current price and, if another 1,000 shares are assigned to you (if MET is below $47.50), your average cost would be $43.875 on 2,000 shares ($87,750).  Your dividend payments would be $1,600 per year (3.9% of the $40,250 cash outlay) and, if MET is over $52.50 in Jan of 2019, you will be paid back $52,500 for a $12,250 profit + $3,200 in dividends is $15,450 or 38% in less than two years. 

A 25% opening discount and 19% annual profits and all MET has to do is not fall below $52.50 – THAT is how we like to invest in dividend stocks at PSW!  

 

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