Top Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas. Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.
We began Top trades in August of 2015 and year one saw 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) made money immediately (by the first review) and half of the intial losers turned around over time as well. We started year two's first quarter, covering Sept-Dec with 22 of 30 trade ideas (73%) in the green but, for example, one of our 8 "losers" at the time of the review (2/20) was RH – a trade that was in our Long-Term Portfolio:
As of the last review, we only had the short puts, which were down $1,400 (23%) so a "loser:" and, at the time (2/20), I said:
As you can see, they hit our target floor at $25 but we were in Vegas and forgot to add the bull call spread at the time – though I still like the plan. The puts, by themselves, are now $7.40 ($7,400) so down $1,400 (23%) and I still like that sale along with 10 2019 $25 calls $9.75 ($9,750), selling 10 of the $35 calls for $6.20 ($6,200) for $3,550 so we still have a net $2,450 credit (or a $3,850 credit if starting from scratch) and our worst case is owning RH at net $22.55 – 16% below the current price. That's an official add for our LTP!
Obviously, the situation has much improved and RH is back on top. The short 2019 $25 puts are down to $2.00 ($2,000) and the 2019 $25/35 bull call spread is in the money at $8.50 ($8,500) for net $6,500, up $8,950 (365%) from our original net $2,450 credit and well on the way to making the full $10,000 but, at this point, we could close down the spread and just let the short puts expire (as we'd still LOVE to own RH at $25 and $2 is a ridiculous price for the puts with the stock at $70 - so why would we pay it?)
