Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Broker puts – I like them as a concept but, as I said above, I got a very bad taste for them last year when this crisis first seemed obvious to me. Here we are almost a year later and it’s finally taking root but I would like to think that smart money can’t be that dumb and much of this is already priced in.

CDO – not only that but this significantly raises the cost of borrowed capital for the funds so where will the M&A money come from and what about the M&A deals that are in the works? I’d say that if we hear about a couple of deals blowing up that will be the beginning of the end for the whole shebang.

MS is a good short with the Aug $80 puts at $1.40 as you can get out at $1.75 (I meant $1.05!) without too much damage and there’s no reason they won’t fall $5 or more if this thing starts to domino. XXX

DIA – $134s fell to .65 already. Will roll to 6/30 $133s, now $1.20 against remaining July $135s XXX

NYX – I meant to take the puts but I forgot. Not going to chase them but my target to go long on these guys was about $70 anyway.

XOM dropped a buck since 1:45, that’s how you know for sure NYMEX pump was BS – these guys are getting desperate. If oil falls apart that will be a whole other series of hedgies that implode.

DIA – if you did the $135 puts back at the top this afternoon, you really need to take that huge profit off the table and flip to the $134 puts, now $2.17 these moves should be made each time the lower level crosses $2. (and top level is supposed to be 2 x lower levels). I’m in those and am getting ready for $133 puts

RIMM – Ka Ching!

Gold – the big inflation data comes Thursday so Wednesday might be a good day to buy some gold. Tomorrow is just Consumer Confidence, New Homes, Durable Goods and Oil. They should be more or less in-line, which keeps the pressure on Fed day Thursday but what a wild last 8 trading hours of the month that will be with a 2:15 statement!

S&P right at 1,500 – nothing else matters but which side it finishes on. SOX below 500 = bad.

AT&T hired 2,000 new workers for IPhone roll-out. Do people really think they are commiting $1M a week to something that isn’t profitable. It’s amazing what BS the bears are coming up with to knock this roll-out.

$10KP – spread of 20 XLF Aug $36 puts at .90 with 20 XLF July $36 puts at .70 XXX Cheap way to play the brokers {not filled for me!}

Putting a bid in for T $40s at .50, just in case it hits. XXX {not filled for me!}