As the virtual portfolio is now available only to subscribers, I thought it would be a good time to do an analysis of the results so far.
Virtual Portfolio was started 10 weeks ago. All trades were posted live in the comments and in the virtual portfolio. All trades were directional, simple calls/puts or verticals. We risked a constant R on all trades, never more than 3% of virtual portfolio.
Total profit is now an amazing 133R or 399% of initial virtual portfolio, without compounding.
We have closed 73 trades. 59 (81%) of them were winning trades and 14 (19%) were losses.
Total wins were 119.05R
Total losses were 13.95R
Average win was 2R
Average loss was 0.99R
Expectancy is (81%X2R)-(19%X0.99R)=1.43R
This means that on average we should expect on each trade a profit of 1.43R.
I am obviously extremely pleased with these results and hope everyone who has been following found some good value in our section and made some good money. Not only by following the trades posted, but especially thanks to the simple method explained everyday in the comments.
The main factor in our success is that so far we have not let a single trade go too far against us and this is reflected in our average loss of only 0.99R.
In the coming weeks I will be focusing on improving our average win, as I think there is room to do better than 2R. We need to be more patient in taking profits out, especially on the first 1/3. This strategy has helped us having a win rate of 81%, but I don’t think this is sustainable in the long run, so we need to improve the average win if we want to keep posting such profits.
Most importantly, we will keep demonstrating that it is easy to be consistently profitable by following some very simple rules with good discipline and money management. With no need for complex analysis, use of complicated indicators, and without trying to guess where the market is going.
