My site was down this morning so all my scattered thoughts have scattered now.
Oil stocks may be attaining a new level of hell today or they may do the opposite since they are very manipulated but I think if COP starts going down there may be no stopping it from $58. I already have the December $65 puts so I am a happy camper but I don’t know that I would recommend someone paying $3.60 for them but the risk/reward is there.
You can buy those and sell the November $62.50 for $1.20 to offset, that will put you in for $2.20 so if the stock goes way down, you can sell both postions for a .30 profit at worst and if it goes up you have a $1.20 cushion another month.
Oil broke its technicals yesterday so if oil continues down below $57.25 Conoco will not be easy to rescue. It plunged below it’s $65.50 support and will have a very hard time making it back. I thought the oil sector would have a relief rally after the hearings but that just shows you how overbought this market is.
I could kick myself for missing PTEN, it gave off massive sell signals on Weds at around 2pm but then it gapped down so I didn’t want to call it a trade – look for it to go below $29. Oh well, wah wah… I am blessing a put on OIS, especially if you can pick up the November $30 for .20 – could be an easy double but don’t be greedy. If you buy 1,000 puts you are disinsentifying 100,000 shareholders from selling and the stock only trades 600K a day so a rash of put buying can literally cause a reverse.
HYDL also looking to go back to $60.
SLB is a short for the daring – too expensive for my tastes though.
RIG, a company I love is looking like a technical disaster in the making, I would make this my trade of the day but I would feel wrong as I will be buying if it hits $50 but the Nov. 55 put is only .40 and looking very tempting.
Again, all these oil trades are off if either oil prices rise over $58 or XOM goes green!
Dell is just tired of going down. It’s over 20% cheaper than HP and not a bad company at all. I love that they admitted they screwed up so I think I’m going to take a Jan ’07 $30 leap and start selling calls next month but ONLY if we get a move up on more than 50M shares – that will be hard today as a lot of traders are taking the day off but that would magnify the significance of the move!
URBN could be breaking up sharply along with the whole sector as fund money flows back into it.
Apple is going higher – there, I said it. I feel much better now so it must be true. I have missed the last few buy signals but I won’t miss the next one even though the stock is closing in on a triple for the 2nd consecutive year. I think $65 will scare it back to $60 and that is when I will jump in but any good news and I will be regretting not pulling the trigger right now. Ok, I changed my mind (scary huh) – I’m buying some now just in case. I’m going for the January ’08 $50s @ $22.10 with the intent of selling Dec $70s or $65s as soon as the stock turns down a touch. Don’t forget just one contract cost $2,210 so don’t go nuts but if I’m right, you should be able to draw about $1 per month income off it selling out of the money calls with not too much risk.
