European markets are up nicely and the Japanese markets are on fire but many are doubting a repeat of yesterday’s performance in the US.
AOL lost a key instant messenger employee to the venture world which is dampening TWX’s stock which is ridiculous since 3 months of great AOL news did nothing to move the stock up. The Carl Icahn show is going full blast and I would have to recommend straight ownership of TWX at this point as the leaps are way overpriced. Uncle Carl says the company should be worth a good 50% more than it is currently valued at and he is willing to auction off the pieces to find out. It all hinges on what you value AOL at but I would have to think it would fetch about the same as Yahoo’s cap of $58Bn.
I don’t see Harry Potter being unseated by Aeon Flux, the only big new movie this weekend. A third week at #1 will add fire to TWX next week but would be very unusual in the movie world.
Oil is up again which may dampen the market but that means game on for our oil plays. My COP $65 calls might be a nice winner!
I need to take a trip to New Orleans and see who’s names are on the trucks that are rebuilding, these guys will be working for the next 5 years at least. The investing public is acting like they might just leave the city abandoned like some post apocolyptic nightmare. They rebuilt Hiroshima and that was an actual post apocolyptic nightmare so get a grip people! They rebuild San Francisco every time that breaks and falling into a giant hole in the ground is a lot worse than getting wet in my book…
Something is up with BSX, lots of long calls indicative of buyout speculation. Something has been up with the stock lately that isn’t on the books and I think the stock is still oversold so I will take a small leap position on it. This is a nice spread play as you can pick up the Jan ’08 $20s for $9.30 (a $2.70 premium) and sell the Jan $30s for .80 (a $4.20 premium). 10 trades like that and the leap is paid for! Worst case scenario is the stock flies up and you only make $3 vs. a 20% stop loss of $1.80.
How long can PLAY stay trapped in this range while Apple reaches escape velocity? Now is a good time to go longer on the stock (I have the current $22.50s) as they have “an announcement” at the CES in January. The Feb $22.50s are only $4.70 (a .60 premium) and you can eliminate that by selling the Jan $30s for .70 but I’m just going for the straight play.
XOM (the most profitable company in the Universe) gained $1.32 yesterday and broke through its 50 and 200 dma to end up at $59.35. The $60 calls are .70 and could double today but oil is the craziest thing to bet, it can turn on a dime and wipe you out. That being said, I doubt I can resist this one! If you want a real bargain, the $55 calls are just $4.60 (a .25 premium).
Jobs data just came in right in-line so that should give the market the go ahead to move up. It would be embarrasing if we don’t go up today with the Nikkei now up 300pts!
SIAL has been consolidating oddly since a GS upgrade on 11/16. It was just an in-line upgrade but I do think it’s due for a pop.
SLB is finally getting overbought, stay out of its way for now but soon we will pounce! I’m hoping for something crazy like $110 at which point someone will downgrade it. For now, a lot of shorts will be scrambling out of this one.
DNA may pop its all time high today it still has a lot of shorts who may need to get out.
The sale on WMT stock is over, nice time to get in on the Jan $47.50s for $2 (a $1 premium).
HOTT got an upgrade today, could get a 5% move.
