$60.55 is the magic number on my oil chart. A close above this on volume means buy buy buy on oil stocks again.
$520 on gold was already hit today. I called this back on 11/18 when gold was $485 so I wish I was playing the futures instead of just the gold stocks… See the 11/22 “Metallica Rules” article for my general gold thesis but the summary is get out for now! Too bad for us, the play is already on in Europe so we are late out of the gate but it is now time to exit gold positions for now.
On the copper front, 11/14 Trade of the Day, PD is another tragically undervalued company with a p/e of 8 and what is shaping up to be about 80% earnings growth for 2005. The stock is up a whopping 50% this year and should pull back from a technical standpoint but I’ve been hoping for another good entry point on this one for a while but it’s been almost straight up $25 since that article. PCU is just as good.
The cost of hiring all the people you need for the 12 Days of Christmas song (8 maids a milking, 10 Lords a leaping, etc.) is flat from last year (yes, they actually have people who spend time on this junk) so perhaps this is a statistic that the Fed can use to finally admit there is no major wage inflation!
TOL is not going down – this is GREAT news for the markets and all home builders. DHI is still my favorite.
I am sad to say my very bearish GE short is paying off.
I am taking the RIMM Jan $55 puts for $1 or less in anticipation of something bad happening between now and earnings on 12/21. This is a very high risk trade as they are now in mediation with NTP!
Our 11/12 play on PLAY is going to pay off big today! Citibank did a 180 on the stock and set a price target of a whopping $39! We initiated this position on 11/10, way back when the stock was just $21… Early this month, 20% of the shares were shorted, I hope those poor bastards got out in time! I’m lucky I caught this today so I could pull my sell order which which I had set at a what I thought was a conservative $27.50…
I suppose the 3rd trial is going well for Merck as the defense rested yesterday and the stock rose. Still anything can happen very soon. It’s now up a full dollar from the 12/1 post with the Dec. $30 call a neat double. You should have been out before, get out now!
The markets are looking good today and nobody should be holding a December contract after this session. Roll them into January if you really love them but next week is expiration and far too dangerous (as RIMM putholders and AAPL callholders are learning today!).
CY – was a loser last month but I am starting to look for an entry point.
NOK is flying up with a Blackberry-type device. They are partnered with NUAN for voice recognition so look for that to take off in tandem even though they don’t turn a profit. As usual, MOT is down when NOK is up but the reality is that both companies are expanding worldwide sales but NOK is the safer bet of the two at the moment.
Monday’s Trade of the Day BSX just had another recall so we will keep the Jan $25 put in place even though it is already up more than 200%. Set a stop at $1.90, no sense in being greedy!
Good trading,
– Phil
