DD is whacking the Dow this morning with a big disappointment, we will see if this throws a damper on the whole party. The Dow looks very strong and it will be important to see how it handles this mess. It is very good to test the index strength against bad earnings from a component so I am very excited about today!
China’s trade surplus tripled to $102Bn last year and you will be hearing a lot about that this week but keep in perspective that this accounts for just 6 weeks of our trade deficit even if their trade was 100% with the US! By the way, it also counts as trade when our own companies set up plants in China to make cheap stuff to send here so these pundits really need to get a life…
Oil will make or break the rally today. We need a goldilocks oil report: not too hot – not too cold so neither the blue chips or the oil companies get crushed. They are predicting such a large build up that I doubt there will be a downside surprise in inventories.
Gold took a world bounce off the low $540s and, if it crosses $545 on our exchange today, then our gold plays will all look nice. ABX may be good for a day trade, especially the $30 calls for .50 if gold trends higher.
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KMG says they are undervalued at $94 and will buy 9% of their stock back. Thank Carl Icahn for forcing this company to step up as he has been pushing them to increase value since way back at $55 last year.
The company is also paying down debt and taking charges against the quarter so I think they are trying to avoid an embarrassment of riches. All the oil companies are sandbagging this quarter to avoid another round of congressional hearings. If BP doesn’t go down off of their warning, no one will.
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JPM finally got around to reading my column and has downgraded SNDK to neutral. This stock
is currently the poster child for overbought with a run from $45 to $77 since 12/11.
UBS is first on board the Apple upgrade train, raising their target to $100. Expect Apple to hit $90 very quickly.
MCD will be announcing a plan to increase values next week. With earnings coming on 1/23 I am liking but not loving this play. I like the March $32.50s for $3.30 (a $1 premium).
NOK is suffering multiple downgrades. The 50 dma is $17 which would be a great place to get in. I’m pretty sure MOT is kicking their butts all over the world and I will be looking to buy into MOT if it has a sympathy pullback. ERICY got a downgrade as well so I’m not going to bet against the sector today.
What a difference a name makes! Since changing its name from YELL to YRCW, my old favorite has been on a tear, up 12% this month. A move like that on rising oil means the market may finally be catching on to the value here. This stock is still cheaper than last year, even with a 25% increase in earnings and income.
YHOO got a downgrade from MER so the question is, will someone have the nerve to downgrade Google?
PRU put INTC all the way down to underweight, this will make for a very interesting day…
BA sold another (ho hum) $12Bn in planes to India. The stock is off 5% since Christmas and bounced right off the 50 dma of $68.75 yesterday. AIR is still a better way to play BA growth as are TIE and ATI. Unless people start canceling orders, these planes will be made and these suppliers will grow.
ATLS and its sister company APL are smoking hot. Look for ATLS to have a nice move up on a very positive article in the Investors Business Daily.
Yesterday I mentioned CY again which opened at $15.50 and closed up .15 for a small gain. SPWR, which CY owns most of, continues to rise and CY is absolutely worth $18 a share minimum. I really like the March $12.50s for $3.60 (a .55 premium) or just owning the stock straight up.
TASR is crossing the magic $9 mark today. I sold 1/3 of my calls and will be watching closely but there is no reason this can’t keep going up.
MSFT is having all kinds of trouble with the 50 dma of $27.50 but it wants to go up sooooo badly! This unloved tech giant grew revenues 10% and profits 50% last year and is probably going to beat estimates of 15% growth for this year. Feb $27.50s are just .40 and look really nice for a gamble into 1/26 earnings.
