Oil is not going up in price, the dollar is going down in value.
Gold is going up in price and the dollar is going down in value. If I read my gold poker game correctly it is the American’s turn to raise while the once burned Arab markets continue to sell into strength.
We had a lackluster 5-year note auction yesterday, though not enough to panic the markets but it is one of the warning signs of a US meltdown. Expect a strong uptick in rates next month as the 30 year notes go on sale for the first time in years. More supply + weak demand = higher rates.
They are looking for another draw down in natural gas today and any build will devastate the gas markets but saber rattling in Iran is going to keep upward pressure on energy prices for now.
I’ve got to think that $65 oil is going to bother somebody some day so I’m being a little cautious coming into options expirations next week when stocks tend to make wild adjustments but it will take something substantial to derail this general uptrend.
We can expect, at best a slow start today with critical gas inventories and note auctions moving the market. The deficit was flat, which is better than expected but not enough so to rally the market today while unemployment came in about as expected.
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C cut LUV today, expect other airline downgrades as oil flirts with $65.
We called the dead bottom on KO at $40.31 back on Dec 29th, the stock has been up 6 of 7 sessions since but now it is running into the 50 dma of $41.75 so we may see a pullback here.
LAB is a nice play on the strength of the financials, they operate as market specialists for 600 companies and have not been getting respect for spectacular earnings growth.
BCRX had a nice pullback yesterday and may stay below $20 coming into options but I like owning the stock and selling the Feb $20s for $1.35 (a $2.50 premium).
I’m betting on little AMCC to turn a profit this year, riding up on great visibility at Mac World. I love this company because the CEO doesn’t take a salary and no insiders have sold since last Feb. Institutional ownership is rising steadily so, although I would prefer a pullback to the 200 dma of $2.80, at $3 I don’t want to miss the train.
HD will pull back today on an informal SEC investigation into accounting practices that were called into question last year. I hate to touch tainted companies but I think this may be a great opportunity to get into this one.
Henry Blodget, of all people, is the first Google naysayer out of the box. This guy has no credibility at all since the .com scandal but I did predict this would happen and he is the logical first guy to set the tone of debate. Great forces are at work here to get retail investors out of this stock!
CBSH has earnings today, look for this regional bank to set a tone (I think positive) for the sector but expectations are very high at .82 per share, recent movement indicates that the market thinks they will miss. The stock has not recovered from a 6% drop since splitting so I don’t see much downside to this one.
GTRC had blowout sales and was moving up anyway. It’s not just guitars – the company is heavy into working with schools for band supplies, and last year was an aberration to a run that started back in 2000 and yielded 30% annual returns on stock.
The company has traded down for the year on fears of slowing growth but will be beating last year’s sales by 20% while earnings should tack on about the same. At $51.58 the stock is way undervalued so I’m going to take advantage of today’s market weakness to jump in with the Feb $50s at $4.20 (a $2.20 premium).
