Today was a technical triumph with the Dow holding above the key 10,700 mark, although finishing a bit weak. I am very pleased because it did this DESPITE oil trading down but with a big assist from GM who gained 5.5% today.
The Nasdaq was strong, bouncing off the 50 dma of 2,250 and staying up all day but the QQQQ was firmly rejected by it’s 50 dma of $41.75.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=%5EIXIC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=QQQQ
It is very interesting to watch these two indicators trade since they are supposed to be identical but little differences like that can be very telling….
The S&P took the same exact bounce as the Nasdaq off the same critical moving average so this “rally” will be officially confirmed if the Dow can just make it back to 10,850.
Both the NYSE and the AMEX are well above their 50 dma so no worries there, these indexes are really ready to fly if they get the all clear from the dow.
Oil came down below $67 (isn’t it sad that we are now happy with this tidbit) as that sector prepared for another build in tomorrow’s report.
Gold had a strong day but could not break $560 so most gold stocks traded down – except for my two picks: NAK (+3% again) and BVN (+1.3%). This is a great example of how sector funds will never substitute for good stock picking!
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SLB came down as predicted this morning. We seem to have reached a terror saturation point where there will have to be actual disruptions in supplies in order to keep the prices up. Since I believe that most of the drama that is going on is faked by the oil producers, I don’t think there will be any that are willing to take it to the next stage so we may be in for a real decline in oil at this point.
Copper hit a stunning $2.15 today, more than double last year’s price and PD gained another $5.56! PCU is now lagging PD by a lot and will be a buy tomorrow if copper is flat to up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=PCU&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=pd
TXN finished just below my $31 target price but I don’t want in until I am sure we are not heading to $30. I will by in on an up move with good volume but today was a down move all day on huge volume.
LVS headed up all day, roping in more suckers, luckily it opened up so I never went short but it’s very close to 200 times earnings which one would have to think is the upper limit for a non-Google company. With a $17Bn market cap, all the company has to do is double this year’s earnings to bring the p/e down below 50 which will still be more than double the rest of the industry. Earnings are now scheduled for Valentine’s Day (hoping to sneak in I think).
MOT crossed my buy-in while I was out, I will kick myself if it shoots up tomorrow.
Cramer noticed OXPS today, I bet he talks about it on today’s show! Too late to buy in if he does.
I caused a stampede on MUR today, I feel really bad because I love the company but it was obviously time to sell.
TOTD CDIS performed about as expected today, giving us an entry on both positions.
BNI should have been the trade of the day. It only took 45 minutes for the April $70s to climb all the way to $7.20 before turning down. That was plenty for me and I jumped out at $7 for a nice 40% gain (close to 1% a minute!).
We are already ahead on BIIB even though the stock was down the Jan $35s held their value while the Feb $45s we sold dropped 20%.
Apple was surprisingly weak. Mainly on fears that Jobs will be distracted with his new toy (the Disney empire).
YHOO is firmly on the comeback trail. Our Jan $30s are already up 15% this week. You can sell the Feb $35s and lock in another 15% (as any good hedger would) or let it ride with a positive Nasdaq open tomorrow.
FRE took a big bounce off the 50 dma of $65 but on weak volume. FNM had a similar bounce off $52 on even weaker volume.
ATYT made its first move up today. We hit the bottom on the nose and I will look to sell the Feb $17.50s again but this time for $1, which will bring the Aug $17.50 total cost down to $0!
Again I forgot to buy YRCW when it hit my target of $47. I will have to place a post-it on my computer! I said that about BTU a while back and it never came down again!
