Wow, the pre market is what Cramer calls “En Fuego” – one can only assume that things are going well in Davos. Today our world business leaders are discussing video games. Perhaps they will discuss the Trillions of hours of lost productivity they are causing (I know the Chinese are actually concerned about this).
Europe had > 1% gains across the board and the Nikkei grabbed another 250 pts so we will get a strong open. China is slowing down a bit which is a very good thing on the whole and lots of speculative money may begin to migrate back here.
Gold is going to have a critical retest of $560 today. Is it a floor or is it a ceiling? GFI announced a 6x increase in earnings but they are already up 50% since we pointed out the potential on 12/6. GFI is not a good stock at all, trading at 500x earnings but this should lift the whole sector as analysts (other than me) missed this by a mile.
Oil is seeking the market’s comfort zone (Shieks own stock too!) and seems to be finding it at $65. This is still a ridiculous fear driven price that has no foundation but what can you do?
Interest rates, unemployment reports and durable goods orders are the data of the day. Last month the durable gains were entirely from Boeing so AIR and TIE may be in for another nice pop.
Speaking of durable goods, CAT just raised guidance 10% – that is uber bullish! That should assure some upwards Dow movement today, but I refuse to get excited until we test my 10,825 target successfully.
Remember, holding over 10,825 will be a rally cry for all the markets, in a perfect world we will hit that todoay and follow up that with an upside surprise from MSFT tomorrow that will propel us right back to where we were 10 days ago before this sell-off started!
But that’s not going to happen. 8-(
Nobody bought our notes this week! This is the first sign of the apocalypse. Oil is still above $65 and, worst of all, Bush is speaking at 10:30 – that guy is stock market poison!!!
Cash, cash, cash and cash. Day trade some picks but be ready to sell – please!!!
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Selling the DIA puts and keeping the calls was my play of the week! I am so psyched about that position now which is now sure to return well above 270%! This was so much fun I am going to start paying more attention to this and the QQQQ trades in the future.
Nice industry insider blog on Google: http://www.awadallah.com/blog/?p It boils down to some serious allegations that Google gamed the Q3 results and probably won’t be able to pull Q4 out of its hat. Still, they are buying it up in Europe like crazy so it looks like another roller coaster ride today.
OXPS kicked ass and is flying up in the pre-market. Told you so at $27!
Microsoft will disappoint if it doesn’t earn a 35% profit on $10Bn in sales this quarter, this is roughly 10x what Google makes all year yet Microsoft is trading at just over 2x Google’s value. Microsoft’s share price peaked out in 2000 at 50,000% higher than it’s (split adjusted) early 80s IPO and Google is only up 450% so far so anything is possible – the real question is where should you put your real money?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=MSFT&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=goog
On Tuesday morning I said SNE will be heading back to $45.70, today might be the day already as earnings were a “surprise” (I wasn’t surprised but that’s the headline). The forecast was for a $60M loss and the company gained $600M, unfortunately if you didn’t buy it when I mentioned it the Asian markets have had all night to trade it up.
T had a nice report and raised guidance and VZ comes out today I got daring and bought a few $30 calls yesterday so we will see what happens with that one.
Speaking of durable goods, CAT just raised guidance 10% – that is uber bullish! That should assure the Dow movement we need for the day, expect to test my 10,825 early this morning.
CY earnings were about in-line and SPWR was a beat so it all comes down to the conference call at 11:30.
There are so many oversold stocks ready to bounce back (ONLY IF THE DOW CROSSES OVER 10,825) I will just list a few I think are ready to fly.
INTC near a 2 year low after losing market share to AMD. This has driven the p/e all the way down to a bargain basement 15 and Jan $20 calls are super attractive at $3.20 (a $2 premium). You can sell the near calls against it but wait until they go up. I also will be taking the Feb $22.50s which closed yesterday at .25 but will open higher.
MSFT I mentioned yesterday. Earnings are tonight.
TXN $30 calls are also attractive at $1 (a $1.10 premium).
GM can be shorted with abandon, I told you that old guy was a kook for buying more shares! They lost $4.8Bn last quarter. Someone needs to take this company out to the barn and just shoot it! Watch out for Captain Kirk to prop this sucker up by buying another round of shares though.
AAPL March $75s look nice at $4.60 as I don’t think they will lose value as fast as they will gain it. If the stock ticks up you can recover $2.50 of it by selling the current $80.
AIR can go another leg up on Boeing strength, I like the Aug $22.50 calls for $4, a small $1.20 premium. You can sell the Feb $25s for $1.50 if you need to but I think this is going up.
TIE had a pause that refreshes and may head up as well. The options are insanely priced so I like buying the stock and selling the calls.
