It’s Google time!
Who cares what the Fed did anymore, that’s old news – Google will make or break the market for the rest of the week. Greenspan didn’t listen to me and he hiked another .25 and, of course, the markets were not too pleased (even though they knew it was coming).
The oil inventories are tomorrow but the big remaining indicator is Fridays Job number. New unemployment claims have been very low for the past two weeks which may indicate a stronger than desired (0ver 280K) job number that will signal more Fed moves ahead.
A combination of worries that the new Fed will be the same as the old Fed plus the anxiety over job growth sent the markets down in the afternoon.
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I am just sitting here waiting for the Google numbers, it’s been 5 minutes, seems longer – this is very exciting!
And it’s a Miss! Oh no, run away!!! A huge miss, $1.54 vs. $1.98 expected. I knew I should have kept those puts… Oh well, the real trick is how will the rest of the market react. This should be great for Yahoo, since this will prove Google is not taking their market share but Yahoo is selling off in sympathy. These are all preliminary reactions and may be straightened out in the morning so we will have to wait and see. Nobody knows how to read an earnings report.
I think they halted the stock… That’s bad! I will give my 4:30 impression: If the growth curve is blown, this stock can go well below the 40 week ma of $360, it will take a lot to figure the new value, not to mention a move like that will wipe out $25Bn of wealth from the market so there may be real hell to pay tomorrow.
Funds that stand to lose hundreds of millions of dollars will be sure to try to prop this up overnight so there may be a great shorting opportunity in the morning. On the other hand, further reading of the report may show some strength that is being missed at first brush.
It is possible that this is just the result of options expensing since I’m sure Google has a lot of that to catch up with.
I will check it out in the morning to see if there is still a trade to be made.
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Speaking of not being able to read earnings reports – I had a great day trade on PD as it sold off drastically on what seemed like bad numbers but were actually just the result of some special charges. This is why you often see incorrect trades at the outset. I jumped all over the stock at $155 (waiting until it turns) and rode it right back to $161 for a clean double on the $160 call!
The gold stocks had a great day today so, of course, I got out. I had doubles on several positions and I would always rather go home with real cash than paper gains. As soon as gold dropped back below $570, I decided I can always buy again at $575 with the cash I’m putting away. I did pick up a little bit of GG when it went down to $27.10 as it looked like a safe floor.
Although it is tedious to wait for for the market to confirm a direction, it saves you a lot of money on days like today!
AAPL was up as much as $1 today and I was sorely tempted to cash that one out but the chart looks so much like last earnings where it really took off the following week I just don’t want to miss out.
CME gave us a gift entry at $415 ($408 if you waited 30 more minutes) before climbing up the rest of the day to my exact target of $425. If you didn’t sell it there then shame on you!
ELN came just .09 off my target and also gave us a very nice entry point all the way down at $15 – I wish I had time to make all the trades I see in the mornings!
HMC did nothing but the earnings were spectacular so we will just have to wait for the Nikkei to get a hold of it. I think Cramer will be mentioning them tonight so I will be selling to his peeps tomorrow.
Thank goodness I called VLO right, I actually got out with a small profit because people can’t read an earnings report. I only wish I had turned around and taken the call.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VLO&t=1d
Oil was too weak today for me to take DUK or MUR. I think I will regret not taking DUK tomorrow.
Still waiting on SYMC earnings.
