This is going to be a biggie but, if the jobs report comes in between 175-275K (unemployment at 4.8-4.9) , then I am now officially calling for a rally. Too high and inflation fears kick in. Too low and the Fed overdid it and wrecked the economy.
I think we will get a Goldilocks number on the jobs because the estimates are through the roof (whisper # is over 300K) but I think that is skewed by the vauneted “Monster Index” which showed great strength. While they may be right, they only measure the kind of jobs that people use on-line job systems for – tech stocks. That’s just the rally sector I’m looking for!
Why do I think all the analysts are wrong? Ford, GM, Mattel, Time Warner and others all announced layoffs recently, that means they’re not hiring! Unless they are all just really awful companies (GM is) then their competitors are not hiring either.
If the indexes go down I am wrong and we go back to cash but let’s just pick up whatever picks got most beaten up as long as they aren’t home builders or oil companys.
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I was wrong about VOLVY get out early if you are in, they are an ADR in the states so it might not move too quickly.
I won’t be here today but here’s a quick few if the market turns up and stays up only:
PFE Mar $25s for $1.05 – low risk
AAPL Jan $65 for $16 + Sell the Mar $75 for $3.20 – med risk
(#)DIA Mar $110 calls for $1.15 + (1.5x#)Mar $106 puts for .65 – low risk
QQQQ Mar $42 for .80 + Mar $41 puts for .75
BUD Mar $40 for $1.50 (I remember why I like this, they locked up the whole superbowl)
BA March $75’s are just .30! How can you not?
DOW Mar $40s for $2.80 if nat gas continues down
MOT Mar $22.50s for .70
Plenty of time to short oil next week. I think housing will soft land so I’m not anxious to short builders with a p/e of
