As it is so late I won’t dwell much on the past.
Overall we broke a lot of technicals to the downside but, if you followed my advice you are mainly in cash and excited about some really attractive buying opportunities.
Although the jobs number was in the low end of my target range at 195,000, it was mitigated by an upward adjustment of almost 100K to the previous report as well as unemployment dropping well into the danger zone at 4.7%. This is why you never use one indicator – If I ever say to do something based on one indicator it is because I made a mistake, not because it is ever smart to base actions on just one thing.
Luckily, on Friday we had 3 things to watch and the indexes were down all day and never held the levels we were looking for which hopefully triggered a cash decision for everyone.
I was insanely lucky on Friday because I left myself with my Google puts being the only large open position I held and that just went flying down! If you are interested, you can slog through the 21 comments of “Wild Wednesday” and then find GOOG references going forward to see how I ended up in this position, moving from a very careful spread into a fully committed short over the course of 48 hours. This definitely falls under the “do as I say, not as I do” rule as this is very risky trading and should only be done with “mad money.”
While I know you may feel I chickened out of our very successful oil puts on Thursday, I always feel better safe than sorry, especially when you are sitting on a double. Since you should be stopping out of any loss as no more than 20%, a double wipes out 5 mistakes (assuming you weigh your positions evenly, which you should) and should never be taken lightly.
