Another fun day to short oil!
I may have to add an Amex rule to the Valero rule… Actually, it’s just because, at this exact moment in time, the Amex is resting on critical resistance which makes it the best indicator.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=%5EXAX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
Notice how the Amex shot up at the open and was followed by the other indices 40 minutes later. By then it was heading down, not liking what Bernanke was saying and the other indices followed. When Bernanke finished speaking around 12:45, the other indices shot right up but Amex didn’t make a move until closer to 2pm. By following this you missed little and got a very solid confirmation with plenty of time to act.
Metals were down again today on dollar strength but that only went about 1/3 of the way to explaining the $2 drop in oil today, all the way down below $58!
HPQ had good earnings today so tech should do well tomorrow. A nice tech rally tomorrow could be just what we need to get over those nasty technicals.
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Our Tuesday oil puts proved you can go back to the well again with spectacular drops (and they were nice enough to open positive too!). This is why I like to cash out, sometimes they run back up and you can go in again… Also, with options near expiration, they are repriced every day so you can’t count on holding value overnight. SLB is a great example as it gapped up this morning before falling another $5.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
XOM was a huge disappointment but HAL made us a nice triple during the day. XOM is tops on my list to short tomorrow with the $60 puts at just .65. It even makes a nice spread for $1.05.
Using the Valero Rule, I entered a lot of oil puts around 12 and mentioned it in this morning’s comments – that was really better than entering in the morning!
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ANF never got that low, perhaps their shareholders are smarter than I gave them credit for. It did drop $2 but recovered nicely so we’ll give it a few days.
CBH shot up today and the June $30s rocketed to $4.30 (I missed it, too busy with oil).
AMAT’s earnings were good, not great so we have to wait for guidance. With luck we can get some money back on the puts in tomorrow’s confusion and then hold the calls for the rebound.
Outback ended the day down 9% but was much worse off in the morning.
TOTD BIIB did far better than I expected due to a favorable ruling from the FDA on Tysabri studies. profits are up and all is well so it looks like we will happily dumping the puts tomorrow!
JAKK picked up another 10% today, the Mar $22.50s are now $3.20, a 600% profit in 48 hours! At this point you should buy the Mar $25s for $1.30 and take the $1.90 off the table to lock in a 400% profit. On Monday I said that “JAKK had my favorite kind of earnings – looks like a miss, is actually a big beat.” Now you know why I love this!
TASR is being forced down into options – this is why we sold them on Monday! If you don’t have it, you may get a chance to buy cheap March $10 calls on Friday.
SHLD picked up another $1.10 today, the Jan ’08 $130s are now $27, up 15% from Monday’s pick, plus you have the $1.70 for the March $130s (which is only up to $2.20 so you can take that money and run if you want).
I got stopped out of LVS with a nice profit, no idea why it went up but I will be happy to short it again as soon as it stops!
It looks like “They” are trying to hold Google at $345 into options. I know they can do it but I took the spread of the $350 calls and the $340 puts for $5.50 just in case they slip and move it $10 tomorrow. Very risky but I figure I can get out for 25% loss vs a possible double.
Check out TM vs. the Nikkei this week – How can you not own this stock?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=TM&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5En225
Apple is now officially alive! If tomorrow is a big tech day we could get another couple of dollars out of it. This is why I kept saying the Jan $65 calls were so worth it!
SYMC is beginning to assert itself.
AIR looks stronger than strong, Monday’s Mar $22.50s are now $4.50 (up 33%).
RIMM is probably being held down for options and will take off on Monday.
BUD has a great day (2 days actually).
HD marches on, up $3 this week.
DOW continues to perform like a champ.
Should be a good day tomorrow. Too bad I will miss it with meetings but I’ll still make my post in the morning…
