Friday Morning

Cash out today! I don’t care how good the market looks, cash out today, at least 75%. It’s a long weekend and the oil barrons are getting desperate so anything can happen. If we are in full rally mode there will be hundreds of things to buy with our cash. If not, there will be hundreds of excellent shorts. It looks like we are in full blown global rotation as Asia is down and Europe is flat, this could lead to another great day today, especially as Euro dollars come in at the end of day. The Japanese market plunged today because their economy is growing at 5.5%. Why? The same silly reason we react badly to good news – fear of Fed tightening!!! Dell is going to cause some pain for the Nasdaq but no index is close to any technical worries. Oil, on the other hand, is flying up over $59 as Venezuela takes a turn in the spotlight, calling for production cuts at the next OPEC meeting. The French are even playing the game now, trying to bail out TOT by rattling their plumes at Iran. I really hope everyone listened to me and dumped the oil puts yesterday morning! Of course the Friday rule is in effect today (never short oil on Friday) so we watch and wait. The reality is that there is still a huge glut and these countries will not stick to production cuts as long as they can get more than $50 a barrel but, in the short term, threats work. ===================================== SIRI had better earnings and bigger losses than expected but I think they’ll be forgiven as they added over 1.1M subscribers in the quarter while keeping churn (lost subscribers) down to 1.5% vs. XM’s 1.8%. Subscriber acquisition costs are down 17% vs. XMs up 36%. In short, Sirius is winning! BA has gone flat into options but my favorite suppliers AIR, TIE, BEAV and ATI have all had a great week so I am very confident that it is consolidating for a power move up. The Mar $75s are a double at .75 but I’m buying more. If BA breaks $75 next week, all the suppliers are a buy as well. JNJ Mar $60s are a bargain at .60. If the stock can’t hold $59, get out but if it breaks above the 50 dma of $60, it should be able to make the 200 dma at $62.50 in short order. IMCL continues to look strong but is being held down for options. The Mar $40s are now $1, up 25% from our pick but still attractive. GSK is also being held back for options and the Mar $50s for $1.80 carry just a .50 premium after a great earnings report. MRK’s sudden explosion could light up the sector. WFMI might get a little artificial options bounce today as the number of in the money puts outweighs the number of calls by a solid 7:1. The current $65 calls are a gamble at .50 but, if the stock starts heading up, you could get a nice little day trade on it. Greed will kill you here, set a stop at .75 on any pullback and keep upping it each .25 (if we get that lucky). ACI did not get the rebound that BTU got yesterday. If BTU is up today, the Mar $75s are nice for $2.30 but the current $75s are just .20 in case it starts moving fast. MET Mar $50s are just $1.65 even though the stock is up $2 from last FridayÂ?s pick. The Jan $45s are still a deal at $7.90 (up 5%). MSFT is having all sorts of problems with its 50 dma of $26.80. If it breaks up it will go large so IÂ?m easing into the Apr $27.50s.for .50. If you took the SYMC trade last Friday you should by out your called for a 60% profit. I now endorse buying the Mar $17.50 for .70. Last Friday I said “TXN is pausing for a power move up, Nasdaq willing. Must own next week!” It took a few days but here’s my chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TXN&t=5d Last FridayÂ?s RIMM play is still a very good trade. The same goes for UNH. Let’s get on that EBAY train today if the Nasdaq turns up. The $40s are being sold at cost and are amazing for a day trade – but only on momentum!!! I like the March $42.50s as well but, as I said, I’m not entering new longs until Tuesday. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet with UPS. Hopefully, oil jitters will give us a chance to pick up the Mar $75s for under $2. Watch FDX to confirm movement on this one. YRCW is still better than both of them but only I know it! I’m taking the Jan $50s for $5.20 and selling the March $50s for $1. ATYT could make a nice momentum play for the day and next month on the $17.50s. Speaking of longs, not today but very soon we need to pick up DELL leaps. I mean, for goodness sakes they earned .43 a share, best quarter of the year – $1.46 is 28% above last year’s earnings and the stock is trading at a two year low, down 30% from this year’s high. I could rant and rave about this all day (and I will soon) but look at this chart and then compare 2 year’s earnings for the two companies: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DELL&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hpq Our 1/6 cheap trade on LNUX finally played out yesterday. We came in at $1.75 and are now at $2.80 so it is really time to half out at least as this thing can snap back. OLED is ready to rock and roll again. Not optionable but a nice buy at $9.75. XOM $60s might be a nice momentum play today – they usually carry a very small premium. I should have mentioned it sooner but I called the dead bottom on BSX back on 2/2 and the stock has gone crazy since. $25 calls may be a day trade on momentum. ********** Trade of the Day – IMAX ********** IMAX is always a great trading range stock but it blew through it’s floor as the sector turned down in the fall but the company is going to blow through guidance after installing 14 new theaters this quarter, indicating it caccelerateate growth dramatically if orders keep up (all of last year they installed 21 theaters). Earnings will come in at about .35 a share (up 50%) on revenues that are up just 12% – My favorite!!! Official earnings will come in March 9th but there is really no reason to wait while they are just giving the stock away for $7.82. You can take the Mar $7.50s for .75 (a .50 premium) but I’m just as happy owning this one outright.