On the whole, today was not a bad day for the markets.
They held up rather well considering the PPI was a very inflationary 3%+, indicating more Fed tightening ahead.
Oil did not break over $60, that’s important, but we now have a clear indication that Opec, Venezuela and Nigeria are willing to do whatever it takes to support $60 oil. Again though, without actual production cuts or consumption increases (maybe a “Got Oil” campaign) there will be no denying the fundamental glut on the market.
Gold seemed to just be reacting to the heightened activity in and around the oil producers, whether engineered or not gold traders like to hoard at any sign of trouble.
I am very glad I cashed out early as the action on most stocks was miserable but let’s review and see how we did…
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ACI was indeed a great day trade! I picked up the $75s for .20 at the open and sold an hour later for .60 for a nice triple. As expected, they did indeed make a better move than BTU.
AMAT is going well so far, the $20 puts went out for .55 (50% profit) and the March $20s are only down .45 with a month to go. If it goes to $19.25 and bounces, I’m going to double up my calls.
AMZN held up well against weak tech.
ATYT weirdly sold off at 3pm, so I bought it.
BA had a great day against a weak market, up another .5%. 5 more days like that and we are in the money on our puts!
Wednesday TOTD BIIB Apr $45s are now $4.50, up 33%. We lost .50 on the put so really a 25% gain so far (but I slept better having the put). If I remember I think I will say buy more next week.
BUD needs the market to agree with it, it is just not going to go up by itself.
CCE just never did what we wanted it to but the Mar $20 calls are still .35 (down 30%). I’m tempted to double down but not until I really go over my initial assumptions.
CBH is back to where we wanted to enter the June $30s ($3), just a little further, come to poppa… Patience is a major virtue when buying options!
Last Friday I said “CSCO still can’t break $20, no buying until it does.” Gotta love cut and paste when nothing changes in a week!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CSCO&t=5d
DELL ran right into the 5% rule today – our spread is still in limbo. Make sure you have cash to load up the truck with this one once it bottoms.
Yesterday I said about DOW “Look to take your massive profits and run if it has trouble at the 200 dma of $44.25.” Check out this chart! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DOW&t=1d
(this is the sound of me patting myself on the back).
EBAY finished at $41.30 if you check out where the optionholders were, you can see the very definition of the Max Pain theory. This was the exact most useless final amount for the most optionholders possible. In no way do I consider today’s actions indicative of a problem.
EDS tacked on another 2.5% today. The Mar $25s opened too high so I just have the Jan ’08 $30s which gained another $1 (30%) today!
All the Tues TOTD plays on FMD are working but these things take time to play out. Today’s drop was an option thing but that’s why we sell the calls.
Mon TOTD GE finally got moving today but we are not going to review this every day until 2008! The shorter June $32.50s are already $2.05, up 25%.
GOOG needs its own column. I have never had so much luck in a trade as those $340 calls!
GSK fell apart in a very odd way. Down in the morning, up all day – we need to watch this one:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=gsk
HD had a great week since our Monday pick! The Mar $40s are now $2.30 for a nice 300% profit. Good call not covering it (pat pat pat).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=hd
Monday’s call to take the HPQ Jan $30s for $4.60 has already yeiled a 45% profit!
I’m almost ready to give up on IBM, the Mar $80s are at $1.95, now down 10% from last weeks pick. I’m setting a stop at $1.70 and pretending this never happened.
TOTD IMAX went through the roof with a 10% gain. The Mar $7.50s ended the day at $1.20, up 70% – looking at today’s strength, there is no reason to sell it but we will check in next week.
IMCL picked up another 1% and the Mar $40s are now $1.30, 30% more today! I’m starting to feel like Cramer on this one – come on people, all aboard!
I’m done with JAKK, made too much money to keep it (.50 to $1.75).
They didn’t do too good a job holding GSK down today, it jumped up .60 from the open and the Mar $50s gained .40 for the day but, since they opened low, they finished at just $2.
OK, now LNUX is up another 14% for the day so maybe I chickened out a little early…
LVS is a great example of why we put in low offers for options. All my $55 puts were taken at $2.50 this morning and the stock promptly fell off a cliff. Wish I bought more!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LVS&t=1d
I don’t know what’s up with MCD, it’s a long time to be held for options but we’ll see next week.
MET was forced down for options but looks great for Tuesday. The Mar $50s are right back where we bought them at $1.30.
I called MOT out a little early but the chart bore my concerns out in the end:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOT&t=5d
I like MTU Aug $12.50s for $2.10 more now than I did on Wednesday.
MSFT just cannot beat the 50 dma! This is why you ease in to a position – at least I’m only 10% wrong so far…
TOTWeek Oil stocks were doubles twice in the same week, what more can you ask of a sector? I have a feeling we’ll be back at that well again next week too! I’m not even going to review all our oil plays as they were spectacular and there were more than 20…
OLED had a strange day but it worked out in the end, up 1% with a strong finish.
The copper twins, PD and PCU were huge winners as long as you weren’t greedy. Both stocks came back yesterday and today, long after we took our doubles (or, in PCU’s case, sold puts against the position).
PFE recovered from a morning dump today, March calls still look very good.
PLAY was flat all week, very disappointing!
Monday was indeed the right day to buy SBUX, the stock had a great time since then:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=sbux
SHFL marches onward and upward.
SHLD $120 calls ($1.20 from Tues pick) finished at $2.70 but I sincerely hope you got out yesterdy when they were over $3. Always take profits on expiration week!
SIRI on the other hand, was not forgiven for their earnings. People just don’t understand the model, even though they’ve seen it before with cable companies. I think, like TASR, we may have to stay away from this one until the market catches on.
Still waiting for SKX to pull back…
Someone asked about SNDK and I said nay – this is why:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SNDK&t=5d
SYMC was a texbook example of why option day is so annoying. Check out how it rubberbanded right to $17.50 after a really nice run in the morning:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SYMC&t=1d
None the less, that’s how we played the spread last Friday so all is according to plan!
Speaking of TASR, it’s now at $10.25 up $3 from our 1/26 repick while the June $5s we got way back on 12/7 for $1.70 are now worth $5.30!
TM had another strong day, I couldn’t bring myself to sell calls against my July $100s yet, now at $12.80 up 30% from last Friday’s pick.
I’ve decided that UNH, although a great company and a very strong stock, has some percentage of Cramer pump in it, maybe 5%. The stock has been killed this week and I really can only see that perhaps it is because Cramer is off during the Olympics (or on late and viewed less) and since no amateur curlers (are there professional ones?) call themselves “Dr. UNH” I think there is a percentage of the shareholders that forget why they’re in the stock. Just a theory. If my theory is correct, expect another $2 drop next week.
