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Saturday, November 23, 2024

Monday Mop-Up

I just loves my cash! What a crazy market. I feel like my mom when I say the ceiling is harder than your head so stop jumping up against it… The Dow made a slight dent, all the way up to 11,117 while the S&P rebounded off 1,287 and the Nasdaq looked like it hurt itself at 2,280. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Eixic Google put its own rally cap early on and leaped up to $346 before ending just a bit negative at $377. I loaded up on my $330s this morning but they didn’t gain enough so I held them against $360s which is a bit more spread than I am comfortable with. Oil gained $1.86 which was a bit more than expected but sets us back up for another inventory short but let’s see how it plays out. An optimist could say we held our downside technicals nicely today but I see a very firm top developing and we have yet to even look down to find out where the bottom might be! ===================================== XOM gave us just what we needed to execute the Apr $60 puts today for $1.50. It’s already up a dime but that sure isn’t why we got it. PD Apr $65s never executed, lucky for us! For some reason they left the $130s and those held their value at $4.10. PCU was down all day as was copper but BTU ran up after the split and gave us a great short so let’s wait on this one for the right moment. MCD went down as predicted on 1 mad cow out of the 100M we eat every year (so good to be on top of the food chain!). The Jun $35s didn’t get below $1.40 but let’s give it a day or two… LVS finally tanked! Man that was a long slow road to a double. I took the $5 for my Apr $55 puts and picked up a few current $55 puts for .80 so I wouldn’t miss anything. PLAY was flat while Apple took off. They even got a buy rec. in the morning that didn’t help so I’m worried but not ready to panic just yet. Play is a very manipulated stock and is likely being held down through options. UNH recovered nicely from a downgrade I do not agree with but it’s enough to make me look for an exit on my Apr $55 calls if they get back to $3. I would love to say how right I was about the COF Jun $85 puts for $4.70 (up 160%) but I chickened out on Friday when it ran up to $90 (double drat). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=cof Another one I didn’t have the conviction for was TOPT which picked up 20% today, 10% of it after I bailed! I’m sorry but in this market I am playing it very cautious! PGIC suddenly took off this afternoon. Patience really paid off as it was available most of the day for $7.50! RIMM is also being held up by unknown forces but I’m betting they can’t do it for 4 more days so I have the $80 puts again for .90. Total gamble of course! AMD got a vicious downgrade today. ThinkEquity predicts a price war and went to a sell on the stock lowering his price target all the way to $30! This was a nasty attack letter on both Intel and AMD, when I said AMD would pull back, I certainly didn’t mean below $30! http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060313/advanced_micro_mover.html?.v=1 ====================================== Google Watch OMG – even Cramer said Google is having too many problems to stay in at the moment! He does this “Stop Trading” spot on CNBC at 3:30 but the gist of it was that having to get up before Congress and defend kiddy porn is the last thing they need this week! “Everybody’s looking for any excuse to sell,” Cramer said. “This stock seems very cursed to me right now. It needs someone to get behind it and move it back up. What it doesn’t need is a big, open-court suit about how porn is the bedrock of what they do.” On Jan 19th I said: “25% of Google’s revenues come from porn so this is not a place they really want people poking around.” Now if only people would agree with me 120 pts sooner! I don’t know how Google even thinks it is going to fight this. ALL of the other search providers have turned over the data already and Megan’s law should make it obvious to them that nobody cares about the rights of sex offenders. I know there are constitutional issues and a bigger picture etc. but as a shareholder (well sort of) of the company I would rather they go work on their next slide show than piss off congressional committees and get quoted defending porn all week so Leno, Letterman etc. can make them a National joke! The worst part is that they do, in fact, sell this same type of data to marketing companies every day – so what is their real issue here? Is it just that Congress isn’t paying them? This is starting to have a Gilligan’s Isle feel to it and the Minnow will be lost if these guys don’t get it together soon. The cover of the New York Post is already written, waiting for a photo, with “Billionaire Pornographers” posted in great white letters so they’d better hope Iran knocks them off the front page on Wednesday…

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