Hmmm, weird day.
On the one hand it was very good. The homebuilders and the oil sector was a catastrophe yet the Dow didn’t crash but it did make what looked very much like a topping motion, just saying no to 11,300. The S&P seemed to feel the same about 1,310 while the Nasdaq looked determined to catch up but remained shy of Thursday’s stopper of 2,320.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Egspc
We are still having trouble with our SOX without which we have a barefoot Nasdaq rally where we can expect to stub our toe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=%5ESOX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Still it looks like rotation, money comes out of one stock and goes into another – works for me! Money also went out of retail investors accounts and into funds who dumped Google shares as fast as retail shoppers would buy them:
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=GOOG&range=0&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=14&y=15
Oil dove today which really pissed me off because I wasn’t ready to short yet so I missed gems like SUN (-5%), SU (-3%), BTU (-2.7%), CHK (-4.5%). Yep, all our usual suspects dropped like a rock and I wasn’t there for it – c’est la vie! Bottom line is the supply demand picture finally outweighed the fear factor as this week’s inventory should clearly show oil builds at a 7 year high! This 3.5% one day drop is the penalty THEY pay for artificially supporting the price all last week!!!
Tomorrow is now a critical day for oil as $62 is the 200 dma so we could have another major drop tomorrow if we can get a slight downtrend.
Gold remains calm so things must not be so bad but I’m still concerned with a lack of clear leadership as more than half the stocks finished in the red today.
I will keep saying it until I am so wrong it’s silly but last March the Dow was at 10,984 and people were buying like crazy and 2 weeks later we were at 10,000, not to hit 10,900 again until November. So let’s be careful out there!
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Even with the death of oil, our old pals at TOPT continue to head higher! Now at $18 (up 10% since Monday) as they declare yet another special dividend of $2.50…
Now you are missing something with MSFT! This is the first of our sleeping giants to awaken and they pulled the Nasdaq up with a .39 gain knocking our Oct $27.50s into the money at $1.85 (up 20%). No more nagging, you are on your own now!
PLLL went straight down 6% today (D’oh), not so bad if you sold the Apr $17.50 which lost .70 (down 40%) on the $1.07 drop in the stock.
Funny, funny people bought LVS up to $50.80 this morning and then must have read my blog as sanity returned by 10:30:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LVS&t=1d
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TOTD BA had a wild ride today! The $80 calls did open at $1 and quickly went to $1.30 (up 30%) but closed the day at $1.10. I came very close to selling mine (especially as I was very angry at myself for not taking a 30% profit in 15 minutes!) but decided to give it another day as it the calls held their value and the stock bounced off yesterday’s close around 3pm:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BA&t=1d
On the chart you can see my real mistake was, since I was busy in the morning and not paying attention (big sin if you are day trading) even though I missed the top, after the first pullback I was given another chance to sell at the same price just 45 minutes later and missed that too!
I mainly follow Boeing to keep my eye on who this $62Bn company is buying from and today they renewed their contract with little LMIA, a supplier of aluminum who have done a great job of controlling costs and improving profits quarter after quarter for three straight years. No options on this one but it’s a well-rounded company with smart management.
If I were Warren Buffet I’d start accumulating right now at $17.50. They have just had a huge run and they might pull back a bit so I have no patience for that but, if they come back to $15ish, I would be willing to tie up a little cash in this one.
