With this sanction talk ratcheting back up anything can happen. In reality, as I said last month, Iran is years away from enriching significant amounts of uranium but there is no way from stopping anyone with the will from doing it.
But reality has little to do with this media accelerated world and diplomacy just can’t move fast enough to keep up with the news bites so things seem (or are made to seem for ratings) worse than they are.
Tensions are real though and I think I’m going to take a pass on most trades through the weekend (which starts tomorrow due to the holiday) as the DNA reaction has really soured my mood.
Asia and Europe are down about 1% and it will be amazing if we hold near flat today. Oil inventories come out at 10:30 and another big draw on gasoline will reignite that market as well.
It will fall on the Nasdaq to save the markets but if it begins to fall, it may be all over for this rally.
I’m keeping my $500 May Google’s unless it breaks $403 and I’m keeping a $62.50 spread on XOM and a COP spread of $70s and $65 puts for .30 each. I’m also holding onto my gold positions as I see nothing that will bring the price down.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114480366304223600.html?mod=hps_us_pageone
Other than that, I’m looking to get out of everything and see where the weekend leaves us, the slightly lower trade deficit (because oil was $5 cheaper in February) should give us a reasonable open to pull things off the table.
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TIVO will fly up today as they are back in bed with Direct TV. The best way to play this is to buy the stock and sell some sucker the overpriced options – yesterday, with the stock at $7.51, the May $7.50s were $1.20, that’s close to 20% for a month!!!
In a normal market I would jump all over the DNA $80s for about $2 at the open. The forward p/e of this company is about 25 and they have a fantastic pipeline that could drive it further down but look at how Alcoa got beat up yesterday and you can see the mood of the markets.
Speaking of AA – if the market takes of in the morning the $35s for .30 make a nice day trade.
HDI came in in-line and affirmed guidance which, of course, dropped the stock 2% in pre market trading so a beat brings you down, in-line brings you down… I can’t wait to see what happens when someone misses!
BOL has more bad news today in a conference call, this stock has lost almost 40% of it’s value this month (take note Google fans!).
