Sorry but I’m out of town and it is doubtful I will have time to post tomorrow. I’ll be looking for the Nasdaq to rebound and oil to remain under $75 otherwise I will be cashing out almost everything until people adjust to the new prices.
Watch GE, if they can’t move up there is little hope. In general, we are blaming the recent poor action on option shenanigans but anything but an up movement could be a sign of a short-term top.
The fact that it costs $2.50 for a $57.50 put or call on NEM says it all about the price of gold. You could probably make money on both sides before the end of the month!
Don’t touch a call if any of the indices are going down on Monday as we are still due for a proper correction. My plan on the below trades is to wait and see which one drops by half and then think about buying that!
=====================================
I think HPQ should be moving up so I like the $35s for .70 but getting right out if it goes down (or better yet just waiting a bit to enter). It’s been trapped with a $34.50 ceiling for 2 months and $32 seems to be the floor, if the Nasdaq moves up this is a nice play but watch that top!
If you would have told me in March that I could buy UNH May $50s for $1.45 I would have closed out my other positions to buy as much as I could. Revenues are up 50% and earnings beat expectations by 7% and they raised guidance for the year by 2%, forecasting 22-24% growth. This quarter had a ton of costs (the kind you expect when revenues go from $12Bn to $17.7Bn in 3 months) that they will get under control. It may go down some more as the sector is in a death spiral but I think there will be an Apple style snap back within 2 months.
KO $42.50s for .35? Come on, its only .60 away! If people are drinking Black Coke then watch out as they may finally get a new hit. Will THIS be Microsoft’s month? Probably not but at .40 for the $27.50s I see it as a cheap proxy for the QQQQs if the Nasdaq perks up.
If oil keeps going up, COST will keep going down and the $55 puts aren’t bad at $1.65 (.70 premium). Safer to wait until it breaks $54 which has been good support since early March.
JNJ is in a real sweet spot with the May $60s at .35.
MS is wayyyy behind the other financials in recognition. If MER and GS continue up, then MS $65s for $1.40 could be very rewarding. It’s got to hold $64 and I wouldn’t buy in if it falls below $65 (now $65.03) until it breaks back above it.
BIDU will follow Google either way but the options are beyond outrageous in pricing (8% premiums!): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIDU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=goog
Either Google or Yahoo are going to snap. It cost $20 to bet Google will move $10 but only $1.30 to buy YHOO $32.50s (.90 premium) – if Google holds $400: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GOOG&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=yhoo
