Weekly Wrap-Up

Wowie! 5 straight weeks of gains!!! We are at 6 year highs across the board (except the Nasdaq, of course). The NYSE and the Russel 2000 are at all-time highs and that is a lot more significant than where the Dow is! $70 oil – no problem! $700 gold – no worries! Dollar down – charge it! Interest up – refinance! We’ve got war, we have disease, we have a deficit that equals the entire rest of the planet combined… We are gonna party like it’s 1999! Time to go with the flow I say. A lot will depend on Monday but if the weekend is kind to us we may come out of the box on the way to another record breaking week. From my Oil Price Information Service I got this encouraging quote: “The Merc traders hype the possible gasoline shortage for all it’s worth in the February-to-April period, when refinery production is at or near the year’s lows,” a broker in Houston said. “But then all their hype can’t stand up to the light of day as refinery production picks up again in May, and prices fall — exactly like we’re seeing this week.” ===================================== Today’s oil puts were all blown dead by VLO at 10:30 as it turned sharply up with the sector but I did take a position on PBR and GRP into the weekend in case peace breaks out… ABX was my shining star of the month so far with the $30s running to $4.40 (up 300%) and the June $32.50s now $2.65 (up 320%). I sold all mine today – I’m not crazy enough to ride that through the weekend – there’s pleny of other stocks to buy if gold keeps going! ADP is off to a slow start as the Aug $50s lost a nickle to .25. AIG had a sad week but I still like the long play on the Nov $70s for $1.90 (up .05). ATI was the right Boeing buddy to back on Tuesday as the $75s are back at $2.60 (up 130%). AIR was not so smart and the $30s are .20 (down 33%) but I still have hope… AU was the main reason I sold ABX today, how can it go down 2% on this quarter? http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060505:MTFH22633_2006-05-05_15-30-28_L05705927&symbol=ANGJ.J&rpc=44 BIIB had another nice week and the $45s are up to $2.40 (up 100%) and the Jul $50s still look good at $1.40 (up 80%). BHP had another good day and the Jun $50s finished at $1.55 (up 30%). The only thing smarter on Tuesday than setting a tight stop on BUD puts would have been taking the calls, we could have made 100% instead of losing 20% – this is what happens when you ignore fundamentals in favor of momentum! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BUD&t=5d COST stopped us out with nice profits and it will soon be time to go back in as they are up on huge gas sales which people do not understand is a money loser for them. Who would have thought that DHI would work this week? I guess I did but I can’t remember what I was thinking when I picked the Aug $30s, now $2.45 (up 20%). ELN still can’t break $15 but maybe next week and the $15s came down nicely to .30. The Jun $17.50s moved up a nickle to .20. EXPE finally caught on to the fact that their sector is en fuego! The $20s are now .80 (up 100%). FDG is baffling me but I will be happy to get my money back on the Jun $40s at .55 (down 30%). If I would have stopped out I would be much happier but I thought I was too smart for the momentum and I was very wrong! FS was well worth it as the Jun $60s rocketed up to $5.40 (up 440%) – not bad for a day’s work! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FS&t=1d GE makes me want to share my love of Ed Zander with Jeff Immelt! The $35s are .50 (up 100%), the Jun $32.50s are $2.95 (up 55%) and the Jan ’08 $35s are $3.90 (up 5%). GME went way the other way on strong retail sales despite the earnings misses of various software companies (I don’t get it either) but uncertainty has kept the $45 puts at .35. ATVI $12.50 puts were just dead wrong and a total loss of .20 if you didn’t take yesterday’s profits off the table (which you had no reason to). HPQ actually moved today, that’s two in a row! Now we are lovin’ those Jun $35s for .95 (up 45%). JOE $55 puts finished off a bit but still at $2.75 (up 75%) so I guess I should have done that one! KO was another dead looking stock that finally came to life and the $42.50s moved to .55 (up 120%). MOT gives me more satisfaction with the Jul $22.50s at $1.10 (up 70%) than many of my doubles – I just love this company! MRK had surprising strength and the Jun $32.50 puts should be written off if they lose another nickle from .30. MS returned from the dead and disappointing with the $65s more than recovering to $1.25 (up 30%). MSFT $22.50s, now $1.50 (up 90%) had to be the most obvious call of the week – it’s like you read the paper, make a trade, take the money… How hard is that? NAK was a good re-call this morning with another 3.7% gain, now $8.23 (up 35%). As usual, MRB offset a bit by losing .04 – this is the wierdest pair I ever traded! I forgot to buy NBR which is bad because my XOM’s are a spread so I am net naked short on oil and the $40s are already up 40% to $1. OLED dropped 6% but I don’t know what people were expecting. They are in an R&D phase and are keeping costs down, what more can they do? Oh well, not ready to buy more but certainly not selling at $8.69 – this is a 2008 play. PD $90s are now $5.10 (up 200%) but I didn’t buy them because they gapped up .50 from .90 on Monday. 8-(( RTP opened too high for my tastes as the Oct $240s are already up 50% to $24! Notice that the Jun $240s only gained $4 to $13.20 so it would have been a 25% profit though… S made a nice comeback and the Jun $25s are .75 again (up 50%). What a week not to pick our 5 time winner SBUX! I don’t know why I missed it, I had a post-it right on my monitor! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SBUX&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= Oops, I was smarter on Tuesday when I said wait for TASR to break $11.50 than I was today when I got all excited about it and picked the Sep $12.50s for .65 (up .05). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TASR&t=5d THQI barely got a drop in before reversing and the Jan $25s are already $3.60 (up 20%). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=THQI&t=1d Another stock I love to death, TXN, was very good to me as the Jul $35s moved to $1.90 (up 25%). VOLVY keeps going and going and the Oct $50s are now $5.70 (up 140%). I still need a reason to sell this one, perhaps if CAT drops (yeah, like that’s gonna happen). We were in and out and up and down on XOM so often there is no point in recapping it. I have worked my way into a spread of the $65 calls and the $62.50 puts both at about .40 so I don’t care anymore as long as it does something! Hope your week was fun! Have a good weekend, – Phil