Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well that was disappointing! Still a lot of weakness in general but things are looking a little brighter but this was certainly not the turnaround we were looking for. Like I said, better to sit out and miss the beginning of a rally than try to get in the ground floor of a false one. The movement of the Dow, S&P and the Nasadaq do look like they are forming bottoms but tomorrow will have to be a nice up day to confirm this – otherwise we can get stuck at this level for quite a while or perhaps head further down. Any additional downward movement will take us into very ugly territory that I would rather not think about… My number one rally indicator is back on high today as Yahoo Finance is ground to a virtual halt from traffic. I’m guessing the bargain hunters are on a rampage but I suppose it could also be a lot of people getting ready to throw in the towel and “sell in May, go away!” Oil attempted a rally but was sold off big time in the afternoon on fear of a large inventory build tomorrow. Last week’s demand numbers seemed very suspicious to me and if there were indeed shenanigans involved, we can expect the piper to be paid tomorrow as orders that are thrown into one week come out of another eventually. Gold was in rally mode all day, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the miner stocks other than the fact that they recovered from what was beginning to look like another day of steep losses. HPQ gave us the report we were looking for, roughly 10% over estimates with a matching boost in guidance and a 13% increase in unit shipments so we can hope the Nasdaq gets a boost that will reverse the manic sell-off started by Dell who gave the opposite report last week. ===================================== It was a crummy day but we picked a few winners. I missed most of the day but unfortunately I did play NADQ on news of a downgrade to junk and got killed as the stock jumped up on the news (go figure). Here’s a very interesting document that gives good insight into the battle for the LSE: http://www.londonstockexchange-ir.com/lse/finperformance/reports/results/2006-02-17b/2006-02-17.pdf EBAY Jun $32.50s came down to .75 and then came down some more to .60 (down 20%). IAG had a nice volatile day but ended up 2.7% at $9.41, I’m not going to worry about this as it’s a very long play. WHIT picked up 3% on the day to finish at $7.72 and picked up a Buy from Ferris. PEIX took a 3% dive and another point was shaved in the AH so we are looking safe with a $1.23 gain on the short while we give up just .40 on the put so far. I should have been more agressive about ESCL as it lost 18% today and another 5% in AH but BID was a good call too and the Oct $30s are off to a good start at $3.30 (up 14%). XMSR gapped up and stayed there all day but the Jan $20s stayed at $1.75. SIRI suprisingly did nothing after opening up. ELN tacked on another 5.6%, putting the Jun $17.50s in the money at $1.60 (up 1,008%). BIIB traded flat as there is still no actual news to explain ELN’s run but the Jul $50s crept up a dime to $1.60. LXK Jun $50 puts took a nice drop from a .70 open to $1.15 (up 70%) but I wish I had been home to sell it rather than risk a tech rally tomorrow. TIE was indeed a buy today, gaining 5% after the split, another one I wish I was around for! GE had a great day and the Jun $35s are already .55 (up 20%). UPS did not have such a good day as DHL complained about the US market and the Jun $85s dropped a nickle to .20. The low of the day is still higher than yesterday’s open so I’m not too worried here.