Asia had another big sell-off today with the Nikkei down 213 and the Hang Seng off 125 while Europe is well up today on holidy trading so it will be gut check time here in the states to see if we are benefiting from global rotation or part of a global collapse.
The dollar is enjoying a bit of a bounce and the pre-markets look promising so we’ll keep our fingers crossed! If this is not a good day on the markets then just SELL SELL SELL and walk away for a while.
As is usual when oil prices start falling, Boone Pickens is a special guest on CNBC telling everyone why they should all be investing in oil and how it will hit $100 based on fundamentals (he actually just said “what terror premium?” in answer to a question). Natural Gas invnetories are out at 10:30 and should set the direction for the day.
In addition to the Valero Rule, keep your eye on CHK for how that data is being taken by a pure play. Expect in the very least a sucker’s rally in oil stocks going into the report with probable shorting opportunities coming from XOM, CVX, OII and VLO assuming they open up, stay up and turn down after the report.
Gold bounced slightly but does not look very good and copper was way off as well so without a big recovery in housing starts we can’t expect a recovery very soon. As I said on the weekend, there is a huge boom in building construction but CNBC doesn’t know how to measure it so it gets ignored but I will be looking to get in once these metals bottom out.
We need a greater than 1% move to confirm an uptrend vs a bounce so unless the Dow goes up 150 points I’m just not going to get too excited. Still in day trading mode, taking profits off the table asap – it worked great yesterday so no reason to change.
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None of these trades should be taken seriously unless we finish above 1,260 on the SPX (not much to ask for) and over 2,180 on the Nasdaq (I could care less what the Dow does). Anything less than this is a very sad bounce so unless the markets look strong all day, I will be taking very few postions.
MRVL was doing great and then got shoved back yesterday and it turns out that they were named in a report by a Merrill analyst about semiconductor companies that generated “excess” returns on options grants. MXM is also named. This is not an SEC investigation but it makes them too dangerous to trade although MRVL shouldn’t fall much further without a formal proceeding but MXM should drop on the rumor alone.
YHOO and EBAY signed a partnership which is great for both but better for EBay and they should take off like a rocket today. My bad for not buying them Tuesday when I said they looked very strong against the market! Google will go down slightly as the “loser” in the deal. There’s no good way to play them as they will open too high but the QQQQs are ripe for the pickin’ and I already have the $40s at .30 but anything under .50 is a good deal.
XMSR lowered forecasts yet again which should bring them down to around $12.50, where they were back in early ’04. Even with the lowered expectations they are still grossing more per quater than they did in all of ’04 and profits are just a year away but investors are just not that patient in this market. XM is a don’t buy until they settle with the RIAA.
SIRI should benefit as they just upped guidance and yesterday they went all the way down to $3.68 where it is a must buy. I have already said I like this as a long-term play and if both stocks keep falling we can expect merger talks to commence in earnest but the FCC may veto anything Sirius tries to do out of spite. Howard Stern and CBS settled their suit which was one of the things dragging the stock down.
I can’t believe they are going to sell us the GOOG $410s for less than $3 again but it looks that way! Third time may be a charm and we might get our double today instead of the 30-50% we’ve been getting all week. Let it come in if Google sells off against the EBAY/Yahoo news.
Mastercard is the very un-Vonage of IPOs. I think the $40 price is way to low as this gives them just a $6Bn cap
Although risky, I like this spot for GME as Nintendo posted a 13% rise in net yesterday. The $45s are .50 but you have to get out at .35 as it could still fall to the 200 dma at $38 where I will absolutely buy the $40s.
RYL cut outlook 35% and is getting a big “so what?” from the markets as the stock is already off 35% from clever traders who expected this. This may be the bottom for the builders and positive news may now actually take them up but we need to wait and see. A lot of builders are lowballing numbers and buying back stock (but what do you expect – they’re realtors!).
MTU is one of my favorite banks so I’m going to make this my first hold of this maybe rally with the Aug $15s at .40.
HPQ and IBM are making an agreement to integrate high-end servers. This is bigger for IBM than it is for HP so I like the IBM $80s for $1.55 (a $1.75 premium).
UNFI is everything Whole Foods should be as a growth story with half the p/e and twice the growth (and they didn’t even blame the hurricanes for 2 bad quarters). I like the Aug $35s for .70 as it gives us another quarter (oh my gosh, that’s too longs!).
I know I’m dull but MOT Jul $22.50s for .40… Just see my last 100 posts about why this is one of the world’s top 3 companies!
LVS down 8% in one day! Shelly don’t play that so you can take advantage of the manipulation with the $65s at $1.40 but get the heck out asap as this is really a bad stock!
DRI got a well deserved UBS upgrade and I think they’ve suffered enough to make the Oct $40s attractive at $1.25 (that’s 3, stop me before I turn bullish!).
MS is having a fire sale on Jul $65s at .60 – if the market turns up this could go very well.
