Long Weekend Wrap-Up

Wow, who’d have thought we’d end this week positive? Great finish – I got my 10 pts on the Nasdaq and the Dow and the S&P finished nicely as well with the S&P just getting over 1,280 right at the bell! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Egspc Best news is that the commodities did not lead this rally which is very important as we will need new leadership to withstand a pullback that is very likely on Tuesday if we have a relatively calm geopolitical weekend. Oil finished flat at $71.35 which fits in with our theory that yesterday’s action was the holiday weekend buying coming a day early. AAA anticipates a flat year for the number of trips but also highlighted the possibility that trips may be shorter in length. If this combination leads to a demand surprise to the downside it will call into question the whole Summer driving season, even with Hurricane season looming just around the corner. While we are hearing a lot of talk about how an 800 mile round trip (seems to be the average for “big” driving vacations) “only” costs $40 more than it did last year, the analysts are not taking into account the grinding toll of an extra $10 per week per car for a family that has been sucking up vacation funds all year. Gold was down today until they closed the capital because someone thought they heard gunshots in the parking lot which in the end turned out to be an air hammer but it gave oil and gold traders a chance to push their commodities up into the long weekend – talk about jumpy! I held some positions into the weekend, which is very scary but I liked the finish so we just have to hope the World doesn’t collapse while we are on vacation! ====================================== We had a very good trading week because we stayed in cash and caught the turn at just the right time but, since we only had two actual trading days there is not much to review. ADBE went nowhere but that is expected into earnings and the $30s dropped a nickle to .70. AET was flat after several false starts and the $40s are still .60. DRI is not lighting the world on fire but it is moving nicely and the Oct $40s are $1.35 (up 10%). GE is being a little pokey but the Jul $35s are up a nickle to .50. GILD has been up and down like a yo-yo and the $57.50s are up to $1.60 (up 40%). GME was a good entry point and the $45s are now .75 (up 50%). I still have my GOOG $420s, now $2.40 (down 5%). IBM was a slow starter but it would have been more surprising if it took off so we should be happy with the $80s for $1.95 (up 25%). KO pulled back a lot in the afternoon but the $45s moved up a nickle to .35. You can see the potential in today’s action! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KO&t=1d After cleaning up with a double on the LVS $60 puts we pulled a great U-Turn and bought the $65s a day later and boy do I regret my early exit as they finished today well in the money at $6 (up 315%). This is a great example of how one good trade can make up for a bunch of losses if you limit your losses to no more than 20%… LU is still $2.58. I don’t know why MCGC fell off a cliff at the end of the day, it was doing great! The Sept $15s moved up to $1.45 (up 15%) on the implied volatility. I think it had something to do with the dividend but I’m not sure so I’m nervous on this one. Did I ever mention how much I love Motorola today? The MOT Jul $22.50s are already .60 (up 50%) and they haven’t made a move yet. MS came back with the markets but the Jul $65s are up just a dime at .70. So far so good with MT as they are taking their rejection with dignity and the $35s are already $1.25 (up 25%). MTU sure moves funny but it works and the Aug $15s are still .50 (up 25%). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MTU&t=5d NVDA did nothing exciting today and the $25s are up a nickle at .70 but I still like them. ATYT had a better day but, as I said in comments, the stock makes me too nervous. It looks like the QQQQ $40s will have to get in the money before they go up in price as they are up just a nickle at .45 even though the ETF has gained $1 since we came in. SIRI was flat today at $4.18 (up 12%). SNE had a nice first day and the Jul $50s are alreay $1.05 (up 30%). I forgot about TM as we never got our price on the leaps from Wednesday and I only remembered mid-day when I had already missed a $2 move! 8-( TXN has been on a wild ride but up enough to push the Jul $32.50s to $1.20 (up 35%). UNFI was a great find, up another 3% today leaving the Aug $35s just out of the money at $2.30 (up 230%). UNH finally made a move today and the Dec $45s bumped up to $3.70 (up 10%) while the Jul $40s only gained a dime to $1.75. Hope you all have a nice holdiay weekend! – Phil