Thank Goodness Thursday

Okay then! I guess I was just a day early when I said on Tuesday that we needed 2% in the next two days to get back on track. I could take credit for this actually being 2 days from Tuesday and tell you I’m a genius but I was including Tuesday when I said that – had I actually said it Tuesday night I would be replacing Bernanke next week as the Fed Chair! And, best of all (must say while dancing a jig) WE DID IT WITH NASDAQ LEADERSHIP!!! Not just any old Nasdaq leadership mind you, we found our SOX! I didn’t even mention it yesterday because the SOX topped out below Tuesday’s high and they have hurt me so many times before but today was a real punch out that has really gotten my hopes up. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24sox Now, the bad news: The Dow was rejected from the 50 dma of 11,280, but only right at the end so tomorrow’s open will be critical. The Nasdaq took off like a rocket in the last hour and needs just 11 points to hith the 200 dma at 2,230 while the S&P looked good all day and is comfortably right between the 50 and the 200. Gold closed just under $630 and just below the non-adjusted 50 dma and tomorrow’s trading will be critical for the commodity. Copper had a tough day as trading had to be halted limit down in the morning but it pulled somewhat of a recovery when it reopened but it looks to be on the verge of a major meltdown. Oil had a very odd day as the build in oil was somehow regarded as a good thing by oil traders in the morning but then somehow went back to being a bad thing by the afternoon (I guess they read my blog after lunch!). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=uso Thank goodness the Valero Rule voided those puts by heading straight up from before the 10:30 report (that’s 3 weeks in a row they’ve called the action in advance!). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=vlo Although the oil stocks still look ripe for a fall, I am getting a little tired of watching them move the wrong way and, tomorrow being Friday, I think I will wait until next week to see where we really are. I think the bulk of the action is centered around the start of the hurricane season and it will take sub $69 oil to bring these stocks back to reality. As long as Iran doesn’t do anything crazy (more so than usual) we might get a little follow through tomorrow but after today, even a flat day will be a very good sign. ===================================== TIF had another great day, tacking on 2.6%. I took my double and ran early in the day as I was leaving but the Jul $30s finished way up at $1.40 (up 130%). VOD also had another nice day and the $22.50s are now $1.05 (up 75%). GS made more money on the way up than it did for us on the way down so I was right Tuesday when I said it would be smarter to play the drop to the upside (although a double on the put didn’t suck either!). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GS&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= GOOG had a heck of a day but the $410s don’t have faith yet and are just back at $2.60. The $350 puts are down to $2.25 and I will start buying a few at about $1.50, hoping to buy the bulk at $1. Don’t forget those puts were $4.50 last night! CWTR is making me cry! If only I would have just paid the $2.50 for the $22.50s yesterday! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CWTR&t=5d After a slow start GRMN turned out to be a great call although the drop put me out of it. The $100s are already $1.50 (up 110%). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=grmn HOV is off to a good start with the Jul $35s already at $1.25 (up 40%). TOL was a little slower out of the box, their Jul $30s are $1.30 (up 25%). Both builders should have very tight stops as that market is very interest dependent. ADBE wants to do something but it’s hard to say what: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ADBE&t=1d MOV was a pretty good pick today, jumping 24% to finish at $23.11 – who says I never pick straight stocks? TGT was a fun pick and the $50s doubled in the first hour of trading but finished up just a dime at .65. BHP and PD both opened too low to play but we can look at them again tomorrow if the copper sell-off continues.