Well we finished the week back around where we started but, unlike last week where we saw it as a positive sign, this recovery was led by commodities which was exactly what we didn’t want.
That theme looks to continue into this week as oil spins back out of control as Iran gets worse and oil demand numbers are being spun as stronger than they actually are. Anything less than a surprising build on Wednesday’s inventory report will surely get us back to testing $75 for oil again.
While we will obviously get a lot of oil sector action on Monday, the question is whether this will kill the broader markets although it would be amazing if they can shake this off.
As we did not have a big day Friday, our trades were pretty blah and I am back mainly in cash at the moment. We couldn’t trigger an oil trade last week and the ones I forced against the Valero Rule I regretted so I think fighting that market makes no sense right now.
Considering what a lousy week it was we did OK with our picks and I’m still warm to them for this week but I will take things off the table very, very quickly as I have no reason to trust this market.
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ADBE (6/15) is right back where we started with it a week ago, which is exactly where we expected it to be into earnings but buzz is building as it shook off the markets on Friday to post a nice gain. The $30s are still off .10 at .60.
AET looked very strong Thursday and money is coming back into the sector and the $40s have shot up to $1.50 (up 150%).
ATI went up quickly to $1.70 (up 20%) but keep an eye on BA for direction.
BOOM made plenty of money for 1 day (20%) so I sell at $33.30 even though I love this stock.
CHA was kind of flat but the Sept $35s shot up to $1.30 (up 30%).
GE Jul $35s are up just a dime and I will take my .50 back if they drop and wait for a better entry point.
Even though GILD had a terrible week, the $57.50s are still in the money at $1.80 (up 60%) but shame on anyone who didn’t cash out when it was more than a double.
GRMN held up well last week and the $100s finished at $1.25 (up 75%).
GOOG $410s are still the best leverage at $1.50 while the $350 puts make a nice spread at $1.70.
HOV Jul $35s lost a nickle to .85.
INFY went down on Friday but the $75s went up to .85 (up 20%), I’m setting a stop at .70 to get my money back just in case.
LU is still $2.56 (down .02).
MOT Jul $22.50s are still .55 (down .05).
MOV should be taken off the table at $24.08 (up 30%).
MS is still way behind the sector and if the market goes postiive the Jul $65s are a great play at .55 (down .05).
MTU is holding up well with the Aug $15s at .60 (up 50%).
QQQQ is back to .35 and make a great play if the markets can pull off some positive action.
SIRI continues to be a long-term play at $4.39 (up 20%).
SNE Jul $50s are down to .55 (down 25%) after having been up 150% at the start of the week.
I still like the risk/reward of the TGT $50s for .45 (down .05).
TOL Jul $30s inched up to $1.20 (up 15%).
TIF should continue to do well with the Jul $35s at .95 (up 60%).
TXN Jul #32.50s are still $1.30 (up 45%).
UNH Dec $45s are $6 (up 90%) and should come off the table, we will have other plays on this one that don’t tie up so much cash.
VOD $22.50s should have a very tight stop at $1.35 (up 120%).
