Weekly Wrap-Up

All in all it was a miserable week for the markets. In general, all the indices are back to where they were on Jan 1st while oil remains over 20% higher and the Fed seems more determined to tighten than ever. This is not the sideways consolidation we hoped for at the beginning of the week, this was a clear drop back to what will only be a lower trading range if we are lucky but, with the Dow resting down at the 200 dma of 10,875, we may be on the way to an even lower range than the one we established in November. Any failure by the majors at this floor level has the danger of sending us al the way back to last year’s lows, which is incredible given the basic growth in the economy but sentiment is so negative at this point that it may take a strong catalyst to get the markets moving again. Friday’s rally failure got me right back in cash and after being burned last week it will be very difficult for me to dip my toe back in the water until we get a more serious correction. ===================================== As I said all week, these were not generally trades to make but ones to watch and watching them confirmed it was no week to play the markets! Still it is interesting to see how things held up in the worst market week since April ’04: ADBE (6/15) had a terrible week as people have lost faith in tech and the $30s are fairly pointless at .25 (down 60%). I will wait until Wednesday and take a look at the Jul $27.50s, currently at $1.80. AET had a great week and the $40s finished at $1.90 (up 200%) but I cashed that out Friday too! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AET&t=5d COH Jul $30s made just a nickel at .80. Even with a big buyback the CSCO Jul $20s went nowhere at .75. After dumping the GE Jul $35s for .50 (even) last week I will be looking to buy them back when/IF the market turns. They are currently at .35. GOOG just cannot break $395 in this market! HOV only lost $1 for the week but confidence in the homebuilders was smashed and the Jul $35s lost half their value at .40. IBM $80 puts went well into the money at $2.65 (up 85%). We stopped out of INFY on Monday even at .70 and it makes a good example of why you should take losses and move on as the $75s deteriorated to .25 by the weeks end. KO Jul $42.50s should also have a tight stop at $1.55 (up 70%) if you didn’t already double and run on Friday morning! Monday we will see how those LEH $65s do since we bought them at $2.25. LU dropped a dime to $2.44. MOT Jul $22.50s are now .35 (down 40%) and even I’m not buying more of these the way the Nasdaq looks! Boy did we call the top on MOV on Sunday! Like I said, 30% on a regular stock is plenty… http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MOV&t=5d MS had a poor week but held up. If LEH is strong on Monday then I like the Jul $60s for $1.90. MTU made us 50% on the Aug $15s and now they are back to .35 again and I like them again! QQQQ $38s have just a .40 premium at .55. SIRI is holding up at $4.26. SNE Jul $45s for .95 can be great IF the market turns. We missed a chance to get the TXN Jul $32.50s on Thursday but they came back to .50 on Friday and today I will make that offer! Monday was indeed the right day to take our double on the UNH Dec $45s of the table: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=unh Our tight stop also saved us from losing a double on the VOD $22.50s as they fell out of the money by Thursday: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=vod