Today may be the day!
Way back on May 15th (600 points ago) I predicted this was going to happen and I am not really happy to be right. That was when we talked about the roller coaster called Oblivion that takes a huge drop straight down into a black hole so you have no way of knowing where the bottom is. Wheeeee!
All you can do on a day like today is throw up your hands and scream…
One thing I can tell you about roller coasters is that I’ve never been on one that goes straight down and then makes a sharp turn right back, physics prevent that. Market physics prevent a massive reversal too so let’s be very careful and patient, tempting though it may be to call a bottom.
BBY had huge earnings! .47 vs. .36 expected with same store sales up 5%. Much like LEH yesterday, if that doesn’t get this stock going then there is no hope at all for the markets. In a normal market this would be great for Apple, Sony, HP, GLW… but I’m not touching it today!
GS also looks like blow-out numbers and we will see if the market treats them better than LEH, which got an upgrade today.
The danger is that this plus strong retail numbers may bring some buyers in this morning but we have CPI numbers and Bernanke speaking this morning so be very, very careful.
The Nikkei dropped 4% today, 616 points! The Hang Seng dropped 372 points and Europe is down about 2% across the board. At this point we would rather have a similar drop here and hopefully get it over with than another 100 point down day and we really need some serious volume to confirm any kind of bottom.
Interest are dropping and continue to be inverted so I’m looking for a reverse in home builders to signal, if not a bottom, at least some sort of turning point.
Gold is plunging $20 and, as I predicted yesterday, copper is too – down 3% so far in European trading so this is another day I will just walk away and find other things to do.
Oil is off another dollar this morning so we can still play the majors down with Valero but SUN got an upgrade today as one analyst decided 40% may be a bit much of a sell off (ya think?).
Sorry I’m going to miss the fun but I have an early meeting but I will check in this afternoon.
Good luck,
– Phil
