Wow, we avoided an end of day sell-off!
Other than that, I’m not too excited yet – it will depend on whether or not we get serious follow through tomorrow and, even then, there is the danger that this is just an option expiration move and not a real rally.
However, with the end of the quarter rapidly approaching, it is easy to construct a bull scenario where big money starts pouring in to dress up virtual portfolios in time to report profits in which case we may be in for a nice rally.
I know it hurts not to jump right in but we still have 800 points of Dow upside in a “recovery” so missing the first 100 never going to hurt if the rally is real. The 200 dma on the Dow is 10,880 and crossing that will give us our first clear buying signal.
The S&P is 30 points below the 200 dma at 1,260 and the Nasdaq is a mile below it’s 200 dma at 2,229 so unless we get a 5% jump tomorrow, there will be plenty of time to get on board and pick winners.
Commodities were up 3% in today’s rally and BA made up 20% of the Dow’s gain, Exxon another 20% and Alcoa 5% so I’m still a little concerned overall.
Gold blew right through my target yesterday and barely made it back to close today at $555 but gold stocks did well anyway so at least they feel the bottom is made. I still want to see gold back over $583 to feel safe but miners are off about 30% on the average.
Oil bounced off $69 to finish at $69.62 but that was all it took to set that sector on fire again.
All in all, a nice bounce but let’s not forget the famous words of our president in this video link:
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/multimedia/foolbush.mov
=====================================
CME thankfully opened way too high to play as the open was the last time it saw $450. I was far too confused by today’s poor performance in a bad market to play this again.
OXPS also got away from us with a stunning 15% drop, way overdone I think but again, not too interested now.
ADBE went down like someone knows something, we’ll find out in the morning!
