OK so I called the top of the Nasdaq 15 minutes early in comments – other than that it was a pretty good day…
The fact that I bought $39 QQQQ puts for .80 and again at .70 should tell you what I thought of today’s action. The S&P did not make 1,260, pulling back 50% of today’s gain by the close. The Dow could not hold 11,100 and the Nasdaq picked up “just” 30 points after a 10 point drop in the last hour.
Although the SOX had a good day they also banged off resistance at 460 pretty hard and the rally was the worst kind, led by Oil, commodities and financials – the same things that got us into the mess we were in last year.
MOT barely moved on its upgrade and GE couldn’t hold positive and Apple only gained .39 for the day – this is not a rally people!
Oil shot up to $70.33 and gold ran back to $590 on a declining dollar which hit resistance along the 50 dma. Failure of the dollar here can be a huge problem, another reason the Fed can’t afford to stop.
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24usd
Oil inventories showed crude supplies at an 8 year high but demand was stronger than expected so everyone who sells oil is doing great. Now we have to stop wathcing supplies and start watching demand numbers because any sign of a cool summer, slowing economy or demand destruction will now have a lot more to do with sector performance than the price of oil.
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MS had a heck of a day today but flatlined at $60 before pulling back to $59.48. Even if you didn’t take my advice and sell in the morning the $55s finished at $5 (up 50%).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MS&t=1d
After quite a jump on Monday and Tuesday, PLA pulled back to $9.09 (down .11) in an afternoon drop.
I really hope we get a follow through tomorrow but, on the other hand, I do have a bet against it but either way I think we may get an idea of true market sentiment tomorrow.
