Now XOM goes up 2.5%?!? I guess I pulled the trigger on that one a little early but I would have just worried about it all day and done a poor job at my meetings…
None of the indices did anything spectacular but at least they didn’t head lower. The NYSE never made 7,932 and the S&P never got near 1,250 so I don’t feel like I missed anything at all. Let’s remember that last Wednesday was a very big up day and today’s action only brought us halfway up that candle.
Also the way we got there: Oil, Commodities, Transports (for commodities) is no way to base a rally – especailly when oil is up based on strong demand at the $70 level.
Rates are now, 5.25% or greater across the board and oil held $72 despite a big afternoon drop that was erased by fevered buying in the last half hour of trading (see I didn’t say manipulaition!). Oil inventories showed a huge 3.4M barrel draw with gasoline down another million barrels against anticipated builds. The draw was actually caused not by surging demand (although that is how they are spinning it) but due the 448,000 barrel PER DAY lower imports! That’s 2.4M barrels in just a week. Distillate inventories jumped 1.8M barrels as refiners chose not to run as much gasoline (partially due to a shortage of mandatory ethanol) plain and simple.
I suppose I’m guilty of overthinking the oil market because I know it’s all BS so I don’t participate in many rallys (kind of like Prof in housing) but I got my wish and we are setting back up for a nice fall before next options expiry.
Gold did just what we thought it would but a little sooner than expected, opening at the day’s high and dropping all day long. You would think with rising rates and inflation concerns it would hold on a little better but gold is just not holding the fear premium the way oil is.
======================================
CAG had so-so earnings on declining sales but didn’t suffer much for it so ADM actually gained 2% today and the $40 puts ran down to $1.30 (down 25%). Since the stock didn’t quite make it to $40.33 it may still be a good time to buy tomorrow but right at the close would have been perfect!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ADM&t=1d
BA had a week day but rallied at the end and the $80 puts are still too high at $1.15.
MGM had a small 1.5% gain today but dropped sharply in the last half hour. The Jan $37.50s barely budged to $5.20 and the Aug $40s dropped to $1.50 for some reason.
MLHR came in with in-line earnings and in-line guidance which is solid growth but nothing exciting – we will have to see what tomorrow brings.
RHAT was a beat but the stock is not responding, possibly because it is already at double last year’s level.
ATYT had a great day ahead of earnings tomorrow morning (up 4%).
GIS had a strong finish into tomorrow’s earnings with the $50s finishing at $1.85 (up 20%).
MON had a down day but the $80s were down just a nickel to $1.60. The drop was caused by a morning announcement that they are spending $77M for 5 firms but I think the timing indicates management has a good plan in place.
COP had a huge day and the $65s are already $1.40 (up .55) while the $60 puts lost .15 to .45 for a net (so far) of .40 out of $1.40 (up 30%).
GM had a spectacular recovery of 3% for no reason I can see making it right back to yesterday’s 5% line.
