It’s a dull day so I’m going back over few months to see how my rare leap positions are going as we tend to forget about them in the day to day action. Sometimes it’s nice to just buy something and walk away for a while…
AAPL Jan $55s seemed expensive at $9.40 on 6/20 but we held throught the dip by selling the $60s and collecting $2.50 while they have now recovered to $17.30 (up 140% from adjusted base).
BBY Dec $50s looked iffy in our first week but are getting a little respect $3 (up .20).
CEPH pulled back a bit but the Jan $65s are still $8 (up 85% since a great bottom call on 6/15).
CVX Sept $60 puts were a no trade on the Valero rule but now I like the Sept $65 puts for $1.85.
ELNK continues to get battered and the Jan ’09 $10s dropped 20% to $1.10 since 7/5.
It wasn’t very long-term but on 7/14 I wrote the following:
“EXPD is a great business but has gotten a bit ahead of itself with a 48 p/e. The company just set guidance for long-term growth of 15% which is not what you pay this kind of price for… Aug $50 puts are $2.70 and I would like them at $2 or less.”
Well, it went up, hit our target and then this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EXPD&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We called for a cash out on GE Jan ’08 $35s way back in May but I noticed they are way down to $2.25 (down 35% from 5/1) and looking very attractive.
LVS Jan $60 puts for $6.80 (up 40% from 7/24). I need to remember to treat LVS more like GM and always short it when it gets uppity.
Way back on 6/28 I said: “I like the MGM Jan $37.50s for $5, selling the Aug $40s for $1.60 as I expect MGM to go lower but I would hate to miss the recovery.” It was better yesterday by $2.80 but of course buy out the $40 for .10 and I will double down on the $37.50s at $2.50 (down 20% after adjusting base) while waiting to sell again.
MRK Oct $40s zoomed up to $2.40 since just 7/24 (up 300%) and need to be taken off the table in favor of PFE when they are done pulling back.
MSFT has had a tough go of it but the Oct $25s are .60 (up 20% from 6/29).
MTU did great for a while but the Nov $12.50s are down to $1.65 on poor earnings (down 20% from 6/4).
NOK had a big pullback from it’s high since we took the bottom on 7/20 and the Oct $20s may be a good second chance back at .85.
We took the PD Jan $72.50s for $11.50 on 6/29 and pocketed $2.50 for selling the $82.50s, lowering our base to $9. Currently they are at $18 (up 100%) and should be either taken off the table or at least sell the $90s for $3.70 to whatever fool is willing to pay that!
We may have cut it a little close on RTP on 5/5 when we sold the Jun $240s for $9.20 (good idea) and bought the Oct $240s for $16.30. With a base cost of $7.10 we are just about even for all our troubles so far.
Also on 7/14 I turned on my old favorite SBUX with this comment:
SBUX is resting right on it’s 200 dma at $34 and I have to believe that people will finally cut down on the $5 coffee with gas at $4 a gallon. I love Starbucks and have never been short on it but a cross of the 200 does not bode well and the Aug $35 puts are $1.90 and should be easy to dump if it heads up.
We got out when that one headed the wrong way but the call was sound:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SBUX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
SHLD Jan ’08 $135s are holding steady at $32.40 while the Aug $145s were bought out for a $4 profit. I would be looking to sell the $150s for $3 or better at this point.
SIRI Jan ’08 $5s are off a nickel at .80.
SLB Nov $55 puts were a no-trade back on 7/24 as oil rose out of site but Nov $62.50 puts at $3.15 are a great way to play no hurricanes.
SMVD’S new President cannot get a break and today is bringing in new management at $1.28 (down 13% since 7/21).
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060802/20060802005107.html?.v=1
TASR has been a big disappointment so far (1 week) with the Jan $10s looking dicey at .45 (down 30%) amid a controversy over settling lawsuits (the investors don’t want them too as they haven’t lost one yet).
THQI had a rough quarter and our 5/5 pick of the Jan $25s is off 33% to $2. We cashed these out on 5/8 (up 80% in 3 days) though so I reallly am thinking about doing this again.
TIF Nov $35s are down to .85 (down 30% from 7/24).
TIVO hasn’t moved in the week since we picked it but the Feb $7.50s jumped to .90 (up 50%) but I doubt you’ll really find a buyer at that level.
TRMP Jan $20 puts are way up at $3.40 (up 70% from 7/3).
TWX is not lighting the world on fire so far and the Oct $17s are up 20% to .50 in our first week.
VIA has no movement in its first week with the Nov $35s up a nickel at $1.35.
YHOO has pulled back a buck but the Oct $27.50s are still $1.50 (up 10%).
Not too bad but just convinces me that quick trading is still the way to go in this very choppy market. Halfway through today so far and I am amazed at the recovery that is going on – hopefully it will hold up but I am still buying those oil puts unless XOM breaks $69.25.
