Weekly Wrap-Up

Not bad for August! The markets were strong all day as oil dipped and other economic indicators support my bumpy landing theory. The Dow breezed through 11,400 but the Nasdaq did a double tap at 2,200 with no success: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIXIC&t=1d The S&P shot right past 1,310 and then promptly used it as support, a really good sign: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Egspc The NYSE also tested support, but at our breakout level of 8,400 and promptly ran up to test 8,450: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Enya Oil fell to $69.19 and perhaps the early close of the NYMEX caught our pumper off guard as oil plunged a dollar into the close: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=uso Having fallen from last Friday’s close of $72.50 one could say that stoping at $69 today was simply the 5% rule kicking in for the week – not bullish at all! Gold pulled back to $632 which was a good finish after being down as much as $7 on the day. Wow, we actually hit a missle with another missile today! That’s a big thing if they can work out the bugs that have plagued it in the past. This may be more money for BA than the shuttle is for LMT! http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH59134_2006-09-01_20-38-32_N0185975&type=comktNews&rpc=44 ===================================== I don’t regret getting out yesterday, although there were many stocks up today there was nothing very spectacular as most gained just a little ground while waiting for the big boys to come back and trade next week. Think of it as primping up for the big dance… Our week went very well and we had a lot of winners and are left with no September calls or oil puts left (other than CHK and ECA) with 9 more days until expiration: ABX Oct $32.50 puts held $1.10 (up 10%) in day 2 and will be a big gamble into the weekend. ADZA picked up another 1% today but I’m bored with it at $17.16 (up 8%). We got out just in time on ANN $40s at $1.05 (up 30%) yesterday! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ANN&t=1d AXA $35s were exited at $2.50 (up 85%). The BHP Oct $45s never stopped out and I forgot them at .85 (up 20%). I really meant to be out of these! BJS $32.50 puts Valero’d out at $1.30 (up 40%), not too shabby for 3 hours… BNI Oct $70s are still $1.65! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BNI&t=5d We took the BP $70 puts in comments at $2.15 (more on that over the weekend). BTU was a nice insurance play with the $45s almost in the money at $1.30 (up 25%). CAL $22.50s were exited Thursday at $3.20 (up 105%). Sticking by CAT this week was indeed it’s own reward with the Oct $70s running up to $1.70 (up 25%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAT&t=5d CHK Oct $30 puts, dropped to .65 (down a nickel from our dca .70) and the $30 puts dropped 33% to .10 but at least they were a freebie as profits from the $32.50s… After suffering for a week our CKR $15s went into the money at $1 (up 120%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CKR&t=5d COST Oct $50s finished at .80, up a nickel. CSX Jan $32.50s are inching up to $1.55 (up 15%) but I think this sector is ready to go. DD‘s stock is making good progress but the Oct $42.50s are just .35 (up a nickel): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DD&t=5d DNE went nowhere at $1.43 (down .06). ECA Oct $50 puts came down to $1.30 (up 80%), we had detailed discussions in comments today and I decided to hold the Nat gas puts (but I’m worried!). The $55 puts finished the week at $2.25 (up 45%) but the Valero Rule took us out Wednesday (thank goodness) at $4 (up 190%). Our protective play on DWSN finished the week at $27.50 (up 4%). FCX $55s finished the week at $4.80 (up 120%) GE Oct $35s are still .35 (up 40%)! I said this last week about HP and look what happened… HD $35s were a real struggle getting to .40 (up 33%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HD&t=5d HET Jan $65s finished a very good week at $3.80 (up 110%). I did take these off the table and used most of the $2 profit to buy the Jan $70s for $1.80 but with tight stops! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HET&t=5d HPQ gave us no trouble all week and the $35s finally moved to $1.70 (up 70%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=hpq INTC $20s came back to .30 (up a dime), nice save after yesterday’s drop! The Jan $17.50s hit $3.10 (up 95%) should rolled into the Jan $22.50s for .45, taking a 75% profit off the table. The Oct $20s are already .80 (up 80%). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=5d I don’t make a lot of index calls but the IWM Oct $72s are doing well at $2.15 (up 60%). It is so hard to follow my rule of selling into the intitial excitement but I picked up .65 for the LMT $85s at the open (up 80%) and even though they finished at .75 I still think that’s plenty of money for a position I held for a total of 4 trading minutes! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LMT&t=5d LUV $17.50s were done Thursday at .35 (up 40%). LVS $70 puts gave us a $2 entry in comments and finished at $2.75 (up 35%). As expected, MHS got clobbered but the Oct $60 puts finished at just $1.10 (up a dime) as the stock recovered half its loss. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MHS&t=1d I’m pretty sure we got MRVL just in time but only time will tell on the Jan $21.25s for $1.15 (up a nickel). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRVL&t=1d MSFT Oct $27.50s are still just .15 but the $25s finished at $1.30 (up 20%). MU Jan $20s held .65 (up 115%). NOK Oct $22.50s dropped a dime to .35 and the stock is now 15% behind Mororola since 7/15: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=NOK&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mot We got out of that PD $85 put just in time today at $1.40 (up 40%). PKX Nov $65s had a strong finish to get back to $3.20 (up 30%).http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PKX&t=5d QCOM Oct $40s ended at $1.25 (up 20%). QQQQ $40s finished at .40 (up 33%) this is a big gamble on Tuesday’s action but all the signs are very positive (famous last words!). For the year, the Nasdaq is still 7% behind the Russell and the Dow and 5% behind the S&P. RCL Oct $40s are already .55 (up 80%). I have to think about this one… RDS.A $70 puts pulled back to $1.30 (up 225%). RSTO held up well at $7.04 (up 15%). SLB $62.50 puts were exited Thursday at $2.10 (up 90%). SNY Dec $50s finished at $1 (up 25%). SRZ Jan $30s suddenly got peppy and zoomed up to $3.20 (up 45%). STX Mar $22.50s are a tough call at $2.80 (up 90%) as the Jan ’08 $25s are $3.50! That indicates we could do much better… but it’s a big double to leave on the table! SU $80 puts finished the week at $2.80 (up 45%). SUN $75 puts finished the week at $3.20 (up 160%). SUNW $5s are all the way up to .15 (up 50%) but that doesn’t do you any good unless we get another nickel, hopefully on an Apple merger rumor… TDW $50 puts gave us an proper exit on Wednesday at $3 (up 95%). Best day trade of the week! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BJS&t=5d We made a lucky escape on the TIF Jan $35s at $1.70 (up 70%) ahead of disappointing earnings: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=tif TINY March 10s ended at $2.75 (up 140%) and we maintain a stop at $11.50. TXN Oct $32.50s got killed today, dropping back to $1.25 (up 25%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TXN&t=5d WSM, is the only September call I have left with the $30s at .50 (up 100%). Hopefully I’m not being greedy. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WSM&t=5d Taking it off the table lesson of the day! WY $60s finished the week strong at $2.75 (up 200%) but we were right last Friday when we got out at $2.60 as the premiums eroded to wipe out the additional $2 gains. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WY&t=5d XOM $70 puts finished the week at $2.20 (up 200%) but we exited early. The $67.50s are .75 (up 50%), but were much higher: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM&t=5d I hope you have an excellent holdiday weekend. – Phil