Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

Wow, what an exciting week that was! We had 47 winners averaging gains of 112% thanks to some huge oil plays, 14 losers averaging 27% and 11 neutrals – not counting commissions or straight stock calls (which were all winners I think). You can tell by the volume of comments how crazy the trading was this week as we were up and down all over the place (and that was just yesterday). I got the finish I predicted (see last 2 day’s comments) but the volume was still a little light and I would have been happier if we would have broken some upside technicals on the day. The Dow closed a double tap under 11,400 but finished strong on good volume: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5d The S&P also double tapped 1,300 without cracking it: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d The NYSE double tapped 8,300 but couldn’t beat it: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Enya I’ll say the Nasdaq broke through 2,150 just to be positive but honestly – so what? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Eixic The SOX couldn’t crack 440 and the Transports actually snuck down (and they thought I wouldn’t notice!) a third of a point to 2,332 – another meaningless spot but still right on that very interesting triangle pattern on the weekly chart (request for Tom to explain this to us): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui – make sure to use weekly view. Oil made it all the way down to $66.25 on a pretty flat dollar and now has one dreadful looking chart: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/prairielinks/CO/A6 The last time I saw a pattern like this oil chart I was watching a guy in Acapulco dive off a cliff! Gold did not fare much better, closing at $611, and I like my new chart guys as I think all the explanations are good for beginners: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YG/A6 I can’t complain as we really pulled this week out of a hat after being caught flat-footed by the drop off on Wednesday. We could have done much, much better if we had continued to treat the market as a hostile entity – a stance that has served us well the past couple of months… ===================================== ABX Oct $32.50 puts finished the week at $2 and I got out with a neat double. The Wednesday repick of the Oct $32.50s was very timely at .80. We’re back in ADZA at $16.66 (up .21). AIR had a rough week but sentiment changed and the Feb $25s hit $1.40 (up 10%). AMGN went nowhere and I’m done with it. ANN $40s finished strong at $1.85 (up 130%) but I got out early: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ANN&t=5d We got our $1 entry on the BA Nov $80s, I hope we don’t regret it! http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ba BBBY Oct $35s finished at $1.10 (up .10). BNI Oct $70s are now $1.20 (down 30%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BNI&t=5d We very unwisely took a 95% gain on BHP and barely got out even – that’s greedy and stupid (kick, kick). We took the BP $70 puts finished at $4.30 (up 100%) and we rolled out to the Oct $60 puts, down a nickel to .25. BSC Oct $140s finsished at $1.25, down a dime. CAL was down a point but the Dec $30s held steady at $1.20 (this is why I like leaps). Sadly, we had to let go of CAT Oct $70s for $2.80 (up 100%). I think I am going to regret not pulling the trigger as it finished today at $1.65, just .15 above my target. CHK Oct $30 puts finished at $1.15 (up 105%) and the $30 puts finished at .35 (up 120%). This is very, very good as both plays were freebies from the profits on the $32.50 puts last week so we are really up a million percent! CKR $15s had another good week at $1.20 (up 160%) CLB was a pretty good pick for a short, down 6% to $71.19 our second day out – too bad they didn’t have options, we would have made a killing! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLB&t=1d Consolation Club member, COH Oct $32.50s are up 40% to $1.10, enough to buy a bag! COST Oct $50s finished at .95 (up 30%). CSX Jan $32.50s are back to $1.45 and I still think this sector is ready to go. We got out of the CVX $65 puts for $1.20 (up 50%) and the Oct $60 puts were a great pre-roll, now .50 (up 40%). DD Oct $42.50s are down to .20 (down 33%). DELL Jan ’08 $27.50s held $1.60. DIS Oct $30s inched up to .70 (up .10). We had to give up on DNE at $1.41 (down .08). I still really like the DOW Dec $40s for .75 (we gave up on October). DWSN pulled back to $29.32 (up 8%) but we got out of that one at 10%! ECA Oct $50 puts hit $2.65 (up 260%), I am so glad we decided to hold those this week! The $55 puts finished the week at $5.60 (up 180%) but I cashed out. EXP Jan $40s dropped to $1.80 (down 15%). FCX $55s exited perfectly at $6.90 (up 235%) and we took a 190% off the table and kept the Oct $70s, which are not going too well at .35 (down 60%). I think we are done with these as they backstopped the PD puts which are well in the money now. FCS needs a SOX rally with the Jan $20s down to .95 (down 15%). FRK held up well, as we said last week, it’s consolidating for a breakout. FRPT finished a rocky week at $7.04 (up 10%) about as good as it gets for straight stocks. GE Oct $35s are back to .25 (up 40%) – that’s right you can still get them! GIS performed as expected after Cramers carnival promotion (see morning comments): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= GLW Feb $25s dropped a nickel to $1.40. I think I took the GRMN Oct $47.50s for $2 just to stand up to Tom (who was 100% right, I’m just very stubborn). I got my butt kicked (50%) on that one pronto and gained a lot of respect for good TA analysis! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GRMN&t=5d HET Jan $70s inched up to $1.95 (up 10%) these are profits from the prior trade so very tight stops! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HET&t=5d HPQ $35s stopped at $1.50 (up 50%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=hpq We had a good call on HP today but never got the pullback we were looking for. We made a perfect exit on out INTCs Tuesday. The $20s finished at .35 (up 75%), the Jan $17.50s let us out at $3.20 (up 100%), the Jan $22.50s hit .50 (up 80%) and the Oct $20s finished at .85 (up 90%). It is so good not to be greedy! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=5d Remember I said on Tuesday morning: “I’m taking INTC off the table as I don’t like job cuts as a success model.” IWM Oct $72s are back to doing well at $2.15 (up 60%) but we wisely took half off at $2.45 and I took the rest of mine on the $1.90 dip. JNJ Oct $65s dropped to .70 (down 20%) and have me very worried. I could not believe they sold us the LEN Oct $40 puts for .80 today on that news! They gained 40% already and made up for my lousy TOL trade: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LEN&t=1d We took the LVS $70 puts off the table Wednesday at $3.30 (up 65%), which I first thought was a mistake and then I was glad we did: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LVS&t=5d MHS Oct $60 puts finished at just $1.35 (up 35%) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MHS&t=1d I’m pretty sure we got MRVL just in again on the Jan $21.25s for $1.15 (down a nickel), but we are .55 ahead from the first go round! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRVL&t=1d MSFT Oct $27.50s are still just .15 and the $25s dropped back to $1.10. MU Jan $20s shot up to .95 today (up 220%). OIH is going well and the Oct $130 puts are $5.10 (up 40%). OSG Oct $65 puts finished in the money at $3.70 (up 95%) and the Jan $60 puts hit $3.10 (up 105%). The Octobers should be taken off the table as we bought the Jans for a rollover! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OSG&t=5d Boy did we pick a good entry on those PD Oct $82.50 puts, now $1.75 (up 75%) while the Jan $82.50 puts are back at $5 (up 20%). We are back in PETS at $9.63 and selling the Oct $10s for .65. QQQQ Oct $39s held .95 and the current $39s are still at .30. RDS.A $70 puts finished at $3.60 (up 600%) and we’re out! The Oct $65 puts are already at $1 (up 55% and up 33% from yesterday’s repick so don’t say I didn’t tell you so twice!). RIMM Oct $75 puts lost 10% today but, obviously, I didn’t take them as they went up all day and they were going to be an insurance play. Still needs to be on the back burner in case the market turns… We can watch SMVD at $1.25 for a possible reentry but we don’t even know why they went up in the first place so I’m staying away unless there is a real bargain again (or real news). SRZ got downgraded today but the Jan $30s are still $3.10 (up 45%) but let’s keep the stop at $2.75. SU $80 puts finished the week at $8.60 (up 345%) on a huge drop today. SUN $75 puts finished the week at $9.60 (up 700%). We rolled into the Oct $60 puts which already hit $1.25 (up 25%). SUNW $5s died on us, we will be lucky to get the nickel, down .10. TGT had a great day and the Oct $50s hit $2.10 (up 66%) and the Oct $47.50s are already a double at $4! This is a great example of how we double down on a different bracket in a phase 2 trade. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TGT&t=5d TOL $25 puts are going to be cutting it to the wire but are down 50% to .20. I did not double down into the weekend, it was just a play call and doesn’t look very smart… TXN Oct $32.50s are .70 (down 20%) but I’m buying more. We said goodbye to TINY March 10s at $2.75 (up 140%) but we need to watch that one for any dips. YHOO Oct $30s were exited down a dime but now I like them again at .85. XOM $67.50 puts hit $1.20 (up 140%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM&t=5d