Another day another record high.
There’s a terrible moment, when you try to launch into orbit, when all the engines need to fire in sync – otherwise the rocket can spin out of control.
We fired on all cylinders today! The NYSE was the last index to go positive at 10:40 and our whole group pulled back less than 50% off the 2pm peak finishing at new highs.
In addition to a stellar performance from all our indices, we have the transports gapping up over 2,650 resistance and finishing at the HOD while the SOX tested 480 and 490 and decided 484 was a good place to finish (up .4%).
Oil was up a dollar and retraced half of it at the close to finish at $58.76, still within our comfort zone but, as usual, the oil stocks went crazy on the lack of falling.
You have to ignore the dollar amount on this chart as it’s based on a continuous contract price but the moving average is fulfilling my prediction of last week: “Oil could go either way today but showed real weakness at the $60 level of late as the rapidly falling 50 dma races down towards it. My downside target remains $57.14 but first we have to get a close back below $58.56 first.”
Today’s inventory report showed a build in crude of 1.3Mb but a draw in gasoline of 3.7Mb and a draw in distillates of 3.6Mb BUT refinery utilization dropped .8%, accounting for 1.3Mb of the draw while actual demand for gasoline was down, indicating retailer stockpiling as oil dipped to $57 last week.
Gold was flat at $624 as the dollar held steady as well on a mixed Fed report.
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Cramer says Zune is not compatible with Vista? Surely they cannot be that stupid? Hmm, well surely they can be that stupid but THAT STUPID??? Er, anyone want some MSFT calls???
Zune does look DOA but you can’t say it’s been scaring AAPL buyers unless the stock should be at $120 and has been held down to a mere $85 on fear of the competition.
Zune is awsome! According to this totally independant blogger (yeah, right) at http://www.zunescene.com/
Here’s CNN trying to figure out what is good about Zune!
While I don’t think not selling 5M Zunes for $1Bn will hurt MSFT’s $50Bn projected sales next year (so I will probably buy more MSFT on a dip) I think the real winner here is – SNDK!
Yeah, you forgot about them didn’t you? It’s time! They’ve got a terrible Ipod knock off too, but now Microsoft has done what Sandisk couldn’t do – they made the Sansa look cool!
I don’t think the Sansa will be rocketing to the top of Amazon’s best seller list but it’s currently #7, ahead of Zune (even though it’s brand new), which is at #14.
Meanwhile, on the accessories list, SNDK brand memory takes 4 of the top 6 spots. It’s too close to Christmas to knock them off that spot and all the way down to #100, it’s a Sandisk world.
Expectations are very low and I like SNDK long so I’m going to take the Apr $42.50s for $8.50 and sell the Dec $47.50s for $2.25. I will also buy .50 Dec calls on a pullback to $44 (probably the $50s).
That gives me $1.75 of my $4 premium back in 30 days and let’s me play a run-up for free with a cushion that should take me to a retest of $44.
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Today wasn’t as exciting as yesterday but it did the job.
ANF wiped out my poor caller today and I took out the $75s for .25 (up $2.25) which leaves me with a basis of $1.45 on the Dec $75s, now $1.85 (up 28%).
The BA Jan ’08 $90s are now $8.90 (up 22%) and, rather than set a stop, I will get ready to sell the Dec $90s on a downturn or, worst case, the Dec $85s (currently $3.70, a $1.60 premium).
BEAS is not looking good at all, down 8% in AH as they are unable to give earnings due to “options issues.” Revenues were up 19% but a touch light and the CC did nothing to make people feel better!
DALRQ had a heck of a morning but, ultimately, they said “no deal.” I should have left my stop in as I’m back to a dime!
As I was away today and set auto-stops I got thrown out of DELL Jan $27.50s as they pulled back from .75 (up 36%) to .70 (up 27%) and I couldn’t bring myself to buy them again at .65. This turned out to be a good thing as they delayed earnings due to an “accounting probe.” I’m still a buyer but let’s see where this ends up. Rules are good!
GMCR had a great first day and finished up $1.06 at $42.56. Too bad there were no options!
MOT finally took off and the Jan ’08 $22.50s are almost in the money at $3.30 (up 25%).
The QQQQ Dec $44s stopped out at .95 (up 36%) on an afternoon dip.
As expected SWRG was not bad, but not thrilling.
TTEK Dec $20s came in at .30 so hopefully not a mistake.
TYC Dec $30s did come in right at .50, more than doubled and stopped out already at .90 (up 80%) on a wild day!
