What levels can we hold going into a long weekend – can we fininsh the week with a Dow record?
According to the WSJ: "Federal authorities are actively investigating a backdated stock-option grant awarded to Steve Jobs, Apple Inc.’s chief executive, that carried a false October 2001 date, people familiar with the matter say." Oh no! Not again!
Things are much more real when they’re in the journal, even if it is the same old story as last week. Obviously, where there’s smoke, there’s going to be investigators, Federal or otherwise, investigating something – that’s what they do! Did everyone think no one was going to investigate? Anyway, I’m not even going to waste any more time on this that to remind you that the timing (going into a long weekend just 3 business days before earnings) or the "people familiar with the matter" is impeccable as always.
Speaking of investigating… Oil was up over $1 a barrel in the early morning Brent pump but the European traders are already just saying no to that as the day moves on! One would expect short covering into the long weekend (I know I am) but how much is going to be key.
We got our Asian bounce, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both jumping more than 200 points and those FXI calls are like shooting fish in a barrel on a US rally! Asia was up across the board with India posting a 3%, 425 point day (wouldn’t you love one of those!). The BSE was my exchange of the year last year but I’m leaning towards somethng with a more Asian sound as this year’s selection – Dow!
Europe has no idea what to do ahead of our open so we’ll leave them alone. An anti-tank shell was fired at the US Embassy in Athens but it turned out, to everyone’s relief, that it was only "domestic terrorism," not those evil foreign ones so (and I am not kidding) everyone was relieved! It is truly a World Gone Mad!
As I’ve said before, from 50,000 feet – who cares? We are back in orbit and looking to break free of all this nonsense so let’s see how the day treats us:
- Dow 12,500 is already in the rearview mirror – can we hold it?
- Transports need to shoor for May’s record of 2,852.
- S&P needs to take out 1,425 to prove it’s serious!
- NYSE needs to make at least 9,100.
- Nasdaq 2,484 is nice, but we remain unimpressed under 2,500!
- SOX could not break 490 yeserday and is our only danger sign at the moment if they fail 480 (but it’s a big flashing one!).
- RUT needs to show us the money at 790 and still needs to break and hold 800.
Nothing to really complain about, if semis get it in gear then BUYBUYBUY but we have expirations coming in just 5 sessions so be very, very careful out there! We need to determine if we are at that 90 degree mark in the orbit and ready to break free or if 12,500 is the apoapsis of this orbit and we need to take another turn around the 12,000 mark before
Hey we found a buyer for COPs stock – it’s Conoco! Funny how they didn’t want it at $74 or $70 or $67 or $64 but they’re going to draw a line in the sand here at $62 and they expect to buy $750M worth in Q1, hardly Exxon levels but still about 3% of a quarter’s trade. I see no point in us being heros and riding out our Feb $65 puts, which are $3 in the money at $4.40 but I will be looking to jump right back into this turkey on any run-up. Remember the Feb $65s are our third bracket roll on this stock, we only recently bought $70 puts for .75 on 12/20!
We’ll see if NYMEX traders are really willing to risk holding 226K open contracts into the weekend with just 4 trading days left after today before those barrels start barreling on the way to Cushing! $52.50 is now our upside danger zone (which is funny in itself) while we have a clean shot to $50 if it fails there!
As usual, we don’t bet against the dollar into a long weekend (althogh it’s a long weekend for us only) as it’s still everyone’s favorite safety currency and, as I’ve said, we are just 1/2 a point away from punching through the 200 dma at 85.5, a move that will make many currency traders wet themselves…
Once again, the future is too uncertain to post picks ahead of the bell and today is more of a management day where I hope to be able to pare some underperformers from the virtual portfolio – but, then again, we said that on Tuesday and have added 20 positions since!
