Apple, Apple, Apple!
This may happen fast or it may not but be ready to buy out your out of the money callers:
- Feb $100 callers were $3.50 yesterday
- we sold them for $2.80 protect your gains with the 20% (of the profits) rule.
- Jan $95s were sold for $3.60
- same plan, treat it like a naked gain, worry about your longer call later but don’t give up more than 20% of your profits
Personally, for .25-.50 I take the money and run, I don’t need the extra dime once I’m up more than 66%.
The deeper calls we’ll have to watch at the open once they price the options. It would be great for those postiions if Apple sold all the way down to $80 but I kind of doubt that’s going to happen.
Oil plays:
I should have organized these better and had a list ready but I didn’t. Let’s look for any of the currently open plays that fall way behind (50%) as postential DD candidates but we will absolutely wait until inventories and follow the Valero Rule today. I’m willing to sit tight on these positions as they are minor but I’m not willing to throw good money after bad.
- The XOM April $80 calls are great movers at .80 if you are still uncovered. I took a DD on Tuesday at .75 and they’ve barely budged so you probably won’t lose too much if XOM goes down to $71 again and it’s great upside protection as it could hit $1 on a spike.
If the markets can’t get it in gear today then it will be time to lighten up in general. As I often say "When in doubt sell half." So consider cutting down on exposed positions if the Dow fails at 12,600 and especially if the Transports, SOX and Nasdaq are determined to lead us downward!
I am not going to be able to issue 100 notes on things I am cutting back on but I will say REDUCE if I feel it comes to that. Remember – I am way ahead and generally conservative so I have a low threshold for riding out a shakey market. Consult a professional financial advisor (or anyone saner than me) before jumping on anything one way or the other as it has to be right for you!
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Please note in the morning post I initially referred to the NYX puts but I meant NDAQ – it has been changed!
- AAPL Jan $95 caller taken out at .15
- Holding onto the now naked Feb $100 calls with a .25 basis.
- Taking DIA $125 puts for .20 to cover all open positions as I may have to start selling!
- Took DD on SU Feb $65 puts at .55 (couldn’t resist!).
- Offering DD on RDS.A Feb $65 puts at .50
- TSO Feb $65 puts DD at $1.10
SOX running into the 5% rule for the week at 456 (median high was 480) but you could argue that 482 was a legitimate consolidation which makes 457.90 a bounce point, where it just bounced from.
Since 480 is the 20% rule from the July/Aug low of 400 – you could construct an arguement that this is a very nice, healthy consolidation and very bullish if we hold $460(ish).
Nov-Dec ‘05 the SOX went from 420 to 500+ and pulled back 20 points before rocketing to 540 in Jan-Mar.
- Taking a DD on IGW Feb 65s for .20 (actually a Triple, as it’s so cheap).
- SU – .85 I’m taking half off if it flinches to reduce the basis.
- done – basis down to .64
- ANF – Flipping my Jan $70 caller ($10.15) to Feb $80 caller ($3) for a net loss of $4.65 which I will add to the basis of my Feb $72.50s.
- Out of DIA puts even (.20) – things look pretty good to me!
- Taking out AA Jan $30 caller for .55
- Out of AMZN Feb $37.50 put for $2.40
- DD on AIG FEB $75s for .15 (May $75s are $1.15)
CVX cited as the biggest oil royalty evader (80% of the outstanding charges!)
- DD on GRMN (2/14) Feb $55s at $1
- 1/2 out of LVS Mar $95 puts for $4
- Setting stop on the rest of the March $95 puts at $3.50
- counting this leg as a $3 sale.
- applying $1 to Mar $85 puts (reduce basis to $1.25)
- putting a stop on them at $1.50 (up .25). (.50 trailing stop).
- DOW 1/2 out of the Feb $45s for .30
- Half out of T Feb $35s at .95
- figure it might pull back tomorrow and I save a dime.
- HPQ charges being dropped. Picking up more Feb $45s for .35!!!!
Posted January 18, 2007 at 2:48 pm Permalink (Edit)
- CVX offering $2.10 on the March $70 puts.
- LOW Jan $31.25 gone for .05
MA getting crushed today!
- Took a nickel on MOT Jan $20s (down 95% but at least I got a nickel!)
- OII Apr $40 put – 1/2 out at $4.10
- too much, too bouncy!
- QQQQ $45.63s gone for a nickel
- Taking IBM $100s for $1.60 as a craps roll
