Mr. B I will tip my hat to you if you’re right but, personally – I’m picking up DIA May $125 puts at $1.48 as level one of a mattress play. I already have SPY $141 puts but things would have to be catastrophic for those to work.
The mattress triggers on the DIA are to buy 1/2 your position (whatever protects you) on round one, then 1/4 roughly when they get to the price of the first level, stopping your first level out tightly, then repeating that play each level down.
The 10 BNIs are a loss of $800 vs the $2K gain on the UNPs so I’ll take it but, at this point I’m willing to let the $100 ride a bit.
I hope it goes without saying that ALL April Contracts need to follow the 20% rule (get out if you lose 20% of your profits) as you are now losing 10% of your premium per day.
RIMM – I can’t believe they’re still offering .80 on the $130 puts! Earnings are Wednesday and I’m going to DD at .60 if I can. This is just a fun bet on one that can be a 10 bagger in a catastrophe – I have no particular reason to think Rimm will fail other than the fact that a high (50% better than last year) bar has been set. Last year they dropped from $90 to $60 when they missed April by 3% (it took 2 months but the quick reaction was down to $76).
I am compelled to tell you that I am DD on my TSO May $100 puts at $2.50 but this is me looking to make up for some very bad losses, and I will double that on the June $110 puts and the July $150 puts until this sucker dies (or until I run out of money). That will bring my basis down to $3.55 where I would immediately sell half if I should be so lucky.
On a run over $108 I will be selling the Apr $110 puts for around $3.80 as a mo play (very tight stops) and if you don’t have the margin to do this I don’t know if I would recommend the DD either.
BSX has been pinned down for days, they’re not going to let it break $15 this month so the logical thing is to roll. Hurts us though but I’m going to sell Apr $15s for .30 in the $10KP rather than leave it to chance.
ICE $130s down to $3.50 from $5 this morning. Watching for a chance to pick them up on the turn as a mo play but it may not resolve the downtrend until $128 this afternoon at which point you are risking earnings tomorrow (not theirs but other people’s). I’m thinking $3.25 is worth a few and another round at $2.75 with a stop at $2.50 (-20% from the blended entry).
COP flying too – and I’m dumping my calls at .65 will shift to XOM on mo play if I have to. XXX
Picking up JWN June $60s for $1.55, selling Apr $55s for .95
MON May $60s for $1.30 (back to the cotton/corn issue, probably takes a lot of fertilizer to change crops).
