IBM $95s for $1 as a mo play! I’m taking 10 for the $10KP, stop at .80 – lots more than that in stp!
CAT – I really need to finish my LTP review today, just in case we need to sell calls (I’m hoping not) . I’d sell the $65s right now for $3.90.
Big refinery utilization (90.4%) so the 2.7mb inventory draw ins gasoline seems odd. Oil down 1Mb, distillates down .8Mb
Notice we did get a pretty clear signal Monday morning and again yesterday morning so if VLO breaks that 5% rule (around $64) I would have to call that a massive confirmation and a good time to short the laggards. Look for TSO to get a pointless pump no matter what happens…
IGW – sorry, they went along with the rest on Monday (.90) as they were just weekend protection. At .48 they don’t make a bad DD though as long as you have something worth protecting.
While we’re on the subject, of course I’m taking the $3 for the IGW Apr $60s and running!
Now we are starting to get somewhere with VLO and TSO! This is VLOs 5% rule so a very big deal if they blow it at $64 and $107. Coincidenatlly (maybe) XOM is testing $78 ant the OIH is at $152. 3 out of 4 of those guys is a great reason to add some puts.
WM – Well we have 20 May $40s for $1.55, now $2.55 and we sold 10 Apr $40s for $1.10, now $2.42 but there’s no premium so what would we be selling for now? The covers were in case it went down and we gave up (so far) $1,300 of our $2,000 gain by being cautious with them.
I think the Mays are now underpriced a bit but, like I said, these were placeholders for buying the Jan ’09s so I will be stopping out of this trade with a $600 profit which I will then apply to the Jan ‘09 $45s at $3 (probably 20) to reduce my basis to a very comfy $2.70 and then I can sell the May $42.50s for .80 for a pretty good monthly income.
IBM – hmm, this was unintentional but I can’t resist the .35 DD, this brings the basis down to .53 on 40 and in for $2,000. The Dow is trading at an ATH and the SOX are up 14.75 or I wouldn’t consider it but the numbers were not that bad and came in at the top of IBMs forecast, just not above whisper. (this was for the regular virtual portfolio – sorry as the $10KP should have stopped out at .60 – I was not clear about this).
TGT – You should have stopped out of the Aprils on Mon when they doubled from .30 on Fri (and both of us were very foolish not to sell them for .30 on Fri). If you are still in them, let them go to Friday, why pay a .15 premium now that it’s flattening? Remind me later and I’ll think about exits on the Mays. I think this was a save so getting all out even is very good here.
BIDU looking good on the calls we sold. I see no reason to pay the Apr $100 caller .85
USG – good space and their underwriters just exercised options, showing faith in the company. I’m not sure what % of their market is Asia and I would feel better knowing that but the May $50s are $1.22 and the Jan $55s are just $3 so that makes a good spread as they are sure to have a bad headline but that’s what’s expected so you can take out the caller and resell on a bounce.
GOOG – we’re still in the same range and the $10 boost was a real gift to get us in on the puts at way less than expected so I’m thrilled to be here into earnings.
GOOG – if you are talking about the Apr $500s at $2 (now $2.75) and the May $510s at $4.75 (now $5.85) the proper move is to all the Apr and 2/3 of the May to leave yourself with a free May $510 unless you took the puts which are the same as yesterday and can be dumped if you sell the rest.
If you just took the $500s you should be ready to lose and just do the same next earnings as covering this is pointless and it’s really a money management play.
The noon oil pump was a pathetic .40 before it died and now I’m expecting a bad finish for the oil patch. They’ve got gas to wish for tomorrow but, after that, not much to show for a bonus round of cold weather.
NYX – oh sorry, didn’t even look in the $10K! Now it’s a better play to sell full against it.
BA (from the LTP file I’m trying to get done):
BA (4/25) Jan ’08 $90s at $10.30 (up $8.20)
Taking ½ off table by moving to Jan ’08 $100s at $5, selling May $95s for $1.55
EBAY is a BUYBUYBUY here, silly market taking it back down to yesterday’s level. 50% of their revenue is coming from overseas and is their fastest growing segment. The May $35s for $1.10 are almost a no brainer so let’s take 10 at $1 for the STP and a nice bunch for the STP too!
Also, I’m not playing it but ICE May $135s are getting interesting at $4.50 as I think the new crude trading will be big for them and BOT volume is through the roof so even if ICE rebids for them at least it doesn’t look as crazy as it did last month. I’ll probably work out a spread on these guys tomorrow but if I were a stock buyer I would consider naked selling $130 puts for $1.20 as it wouldn’t be such a bad thing to own this stock for $128.80 on Monday.
PTR is crashing critical levels but its a Buffett selection and if China cuts back to 8% growth that’s still better than 75% of the S&P. BUT – any individual Chinese stock can sell off for no reason whatsoever and this one has formed a nice solid top so I’d like the May $115 puts if they come back to around $2.75 (assuming it makes another run at $115 and fails) otherwise I’d let it go on a $2 drop.
PBR – is way more overpriced than PTR and has to deal with crazy uncle Hugo (who’s been very quiet lately). I’d like to see them fail $105 but I like the Jul/May $105 put spread for a net of $2.10 if we don’t get a bounce as that takes care of pretty much all of your premium and you still have June to roll to. XXX (but wait)
GSF on the mend, watch your SLB puts! I’d say over $74.60 is an absolute out.
EBay, no that’s a fundamental play that I would DD at .60.
Watch the OIH at $150 for signs of real capitulation but if Nat gas can’t hold $7.50 then thye’ve got some real issues. CHK doesn’t seem to be making much of the numbers nor does ECA or BTU (who competes with Nat gas for electric generation).
ECA seems to be saying those gas numbers weren’t as good as Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude would have us believe…
TSO – $109.12 pretty much nailed it on the head Happy! Like I said the $110puts make a nice mo play for daredevils! XXX IF it fails $108 – be happy with $1!!!
UNH – yes, good idea – safe enough to accumulate a bit here but I’d rather see it test the 5% rule at $51 again, but that’s a little greedy.
They did have worse than expected enrollment in their medicare program on which a lot of future earnings depend and costs are rising which is bad for them as they can get squeezed and have a hard time passing increases along.
We had them in the LTP last year and they were great but I avoided them this year as they flatlined. Cramer keeps this stock volatile in the channel though and the May $50s have a buck of premium, which is pretty good if the $55s never get to $1 after you buy the leaps. Since the reality is that they are, in fact, rangebound, the Jan $55s are just $4.35 so this is an XXX to buy a 1/2 position in the Jans, hope to sell the May $55s for $1 or better but settle on selling the May $50s for the $1 premium after you DD on the Jans at $3 if it goes the wrong way.
TSO – They have to break below $108 for more than a second and we want to see confirmation from the VGroup. Beware the close of Europe pump at noon and I’m hoping for another run to $109+ – at $1 I’d be happy to play this but I’m a gambler during X week. I certainly don’t recommend this as anything other than casino style betting. Like I said, at +$1 I’m out.
Ads on YouTube!!! It’s all over but the shouting. 100M daily users viewing ads pays for a hell of a lot of copyright lawsuits… Watch how long it takes analysts to do the math on this – Goog right now at $473.50 with $1Bn in profits. Even at .01 per ad (and Goog doesn’t have to share YouTube revs) you’re looking at $1M per day to the bottom line and I’ll bet they can do better than that.
SOX doing so well MU is starting to move. I resisted temptation yesterday but I like the May $11s for .50
Right now I am regretting my puts and not going to DD on them as Goog moves up, that leak of YouTube ad news was intentional and they get to play that card (the “here’s how we blow the doors off your future estimates” card) one time and it cost them $1.6Bn + lawsuits to play it AND they didn’t need to play it here so I have a feeling they’re going for a permanent move over $500 on these earnings.
JMHO
I’m trying to buy IBM $95s for .10 but no one will sell them to me.
The fate of the entire stock market rests on GOOG and my betting is that GS is up $2.75 because its in the bag. Gosh I hope I’m right!
GOOG – if you don’t have puts you are nuts. I don’t care how bullish you are this thing can go either way, look how it reacts to news or Cramer or whoever every 5 mins.
GOOG – I’m bullish but you need to look at the spreads from Sunday’s post. The problem is you were supposed to buy calls low and sell puts high, which worked out great with the stock movement this week as we opened at $470 where the calls came in, then we hit $476 where we got puts, then back to $470 for round two calls and back to $480 for round 2 puts. Now we are finishing dead in between – hardly a coincidence…
If you’re into spreads you can sell the $490 calls for $4.50 and sell the $460 puts for $5.90 which means you will be out of pocket starting if the stock hits $500 or $450 but in pretty good shape if it fails to move $25. This is not a bad play against spreads that may give you trouble if there is no move. XXX
SOX and DOW have best gains for the week so most room to fall. I still like the May DIA $128 puts as primary play and IGW (which is up much more than the SOX) May $60 puts for .35, which were .90 on Monday.
EBAY – a month is a very long time but no sense in DD on this action.
GOOG – now it is good to Sell the $470s for $12 against the May $480s for $14, this is good for the $10KP as there is very little chance of damage as you will have a premium and they are paying all the way to your strike. In the $10KP I would say take 5 for a $1,000 spread price. XXX for any other port too!
goog’s up a solid 20 already
I’m sure glad philsworld talked me into selling all my puts 
