Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

April 20, 2007

168

Posted April 20, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

I was just catching up on the old post. I don’t think they’ll break $500 but we’ll have to see. At this point I’ve been picking up $490 puts at $2.25, now $3.50 with 20% of my profits as my calls are May and later and can stand a $5 drop.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG spread – May $480s are surprisingly cheap right now at $20, we’ll have to keep our eye on this but would be best if it drops to lower $480s. If that doesn’t happen we’ve got the choice of buying out Apr $470s and holding in-the-money calls for about a $13 premium or cutting back 90% of the position and leaving the one call open (more realistic for $10KP players) or rolling the caller to the May $490s for $14, which puts us in for $3 (the $2 we collected yesterday plus the $14 we get today less the $19 we have to give the caller) and we make anythign over $483 up to $490. The last is my move for the $10KP if we don’t get a pullback but not everyone is allowed to make that kind of trade.

Of course I will attempt to time it but I’m waiting for the $485 to hit – if it does.

IBM is another good example, someone is selling this thing like it’s life or death to flush out the calls and I’m moving to the May $95s for $1.20 if I can.

Check out MCD – that’s a shocker, also opening up an opportunity for the May $47.50s at $1.45 (.80 premium)

Posted April 20, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – rolling up EOD to $129s – for .30, so far the insurance was well worth it…

Posted April 20, 2007 at 10:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

IBM – Roll and DD brings my basis down to about $1.70 ($.70 loss added to $1.25 purchase then another round at either $1 or $1.45) on twice as many shares and I need $1.70 to break even and those contracts traded up over $3 most of the month. Earnings were good, not bad and I firmly believe this is total expiration nonsense.

TM – you should hold half. A lot of halves shold be taken at this level, crazy money being thrown at things but plenty of great laggards (EBAY, IBM, MCD…) for us to buy with cash if the rally continues. It depends on your liquidity of course, TM should do great and has earnings coming up so may go to $140 or may go to $115 but I love this company enough to hold half.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 11:25 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – Sept/May play is a total home run, up on both ends need to set a stop on the May $510s at $6 (even)

On the Sept $520s we’re just over even after subtracting the puts but this is meant to be a producer so I can’’t risk it over the weekend and I will have to sell the $510s for $5 against it.

I’m half out on the June spread so I’m just going to see what happens there

Posted April 20, 2007 at 11:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

WM – We have 20 May $40s at $2.60 (up $1.05) and 10 sold Apr $40s at $2.60 (down $1.30) for a net of + .35., that’s the $700 we expected to take out of this deal. Rolling my caller doesn’t make any sense as this was a placeholder for the leap but for today I’m just going to cash out and decide on the leap next week.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 12:12 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – I have the May $129 puts now at $1.35 avg and will stop out of the May $128s at $1 as I have a lot more than I really want now but it will be really cool if the market dives suddenly!

GOOG – $483 would be a bad line to cross. $480 puts have gone from .35 at $489 to .45 now so it doesn’t seem like a lot of people believe it’s going down. Those make a great mo play if things turn sour.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 12:38 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Call me crazy but I took the IBM May $95s for $1.10. If you had asked me 5 days ago if I would be happy to own these for $2 I’d have said hell yeah.

AMZN suddenly weak. Selling other 1/3 May $45s for $1.95

Posted April 20, 2007 at 1:02 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Airlines getting clobbered. Puts me off shorting oil…

Out of GOOG $490 puts at $6, not sure what to do about the rest if we can’t break $485 but I’ll probably look at May $470 puts at $6, even though I would be shocked if they pay off.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 1:03 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Oh, I did buy the $480 puts for .30 as a roll but really it’s a “just in case” play.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 1:15 pm | Permalink (Edit)

See, you just have to wait… Goog May $480/June $470 spread back to $2 so those of you who couldn’t flip the trade in the $10KP can get out harmless (less commissions) here.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 1:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BIDU kicking it into gear. If you havent taken out your $100 caller in the $10KP you might want to consider it if they pop $100.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 2:06 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BIDU is not going to pull it out until GOOG takes the lead.

Posted April 20, 2007 at 2:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

ATI with a big comeback – TIE May $35s looking good at $1.85. XXX

Posted April 20, 2007 at 2:33 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CAT – We need to cash these and move to the Jan ‘09 $70s. I’m going to cash today and move next week. Maybe there’ll be a pullback or maybe it will cost me an extra buck but I’m good with that at this point (up 81%). Remember when this trade was killing us? Seems like a lifetime ago…

Posted April 20, 2007 at 3:03 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CAT Buddy CMI is now flying and VOLV is way up there too – massive global expansion signs.

OK, now I’m getting more bullish. The advancers are up 110% and the decliners are down 60% and the VIX is down even though the Dow is up 120 pts indicating this movement is in the right direction. The SOX are doggin it but after leading all week they deserve a rest

ICE – I thought they were held down and the BOT traffic was huge so it’s more of a fundie thing, worth waiting the weekend over.

XRX – probably not. Just a bad call on that purchase they made hurting them. Everybody loved it. They are too close to do anyhing with. You could roll to the July $18 puts for .38 if you simply hate to lose, at .28 per 90 days you’re bound to get them sooner or later but this was my bad for not killing them the first day when they got a pretty positive reaction to the deal.

Once your premise is blown for taking a position, don’t try to find another one to justify it!

Posted April 20, 2007 at 3:12 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BIDU getting pinned back to $100 too (always a good sign if they get forced down out of the money).