What was that?
We had a sudden, very broad-based drop-off at 2:17 and there was no clear indication as to what caused it. Luckily, I didn't like the market at 9:47 when I said: "I think we have a buy opportunity on semis if the broader market holds up but meanwhile – 20% of profit stops as we need to lighten up anyway." I added: "AMZN doesn’t care, JDSU doesn’t care, HPQ and Dell don’t care, GOOG doesn’t care – could be time for tech if the SOX can shake it off. If the companies I just mentioned start tanking, then we run away!"
Well it turned out to be an excellent time to run away as we had a nice run-up in the morning that let us stop out of a lot of our positions ahead of where we were at Friday's close. We got stopped out of 17 positions in the end including a lot of big winners that we just couldn't leave on the table:
|
Symbol |
|
|
|
|
Qty |
Paid |
Sold |
|
P/L |
% |
| AAPL | M | $ 100 | C | 4/27 | 50 | $1.50 | $ 2.50 | 4/30 | $ 1.00 | 67% |
| AAPL | O | $ 100 | C | 4/25 | 20 | $7.65 | $ 9.70 | 4/30 | $ 2.05 | 27% |
| AAPL | M | $ 100 | P | 4/26 | 50 | $1.60 | $ 1.80 | 4/30 | $ 0.20 | 13% |
| BEAV | J | $ 35 | C | 2/5 | 20 | $0.05 | $ 7.00 | 4/30 | $ 6.95 | 13900% |
| CME | M | $ 520 | P | 4/23 | 10 | $4.00 | $ 9.50 | 4/30 | $ 5.50 | 138% |
| DIA | J | $ 124 | C | 12/18 | 160 | $4.00 | $ 8.40 | 4/30 | $ 4.40 | 110% |
| EBAY | J | $ 33 | C | 4/24 | 30 | $2.00 | $ 2.40 | 4/30 | $ 0.40 | 20% |
| HAL | M | $ 33 | C | 4/25 | 40 | $0.50 | $ 0.60 | 4/30 | $ 0.10 | 20% |
| INTC | J | $ 23 | C | 4/17 | 50 | $0.19 | $ 0.74 | 4/30 | $ 0.55 | 289% |
| MDT | M | $ 50 | C | 3/26 | 20 | $1.20 | $ 3.25 | 4/30 | $ 4.30 | 358% |
| MON | M | $ 60 | C | 4/24 | 10 | $0.90 | $ 1.20 | 4/30 | $ 0.30 | 33% |
| NKE | M | $ 55 | C | 4/4 | 20 | $0.75 | $ 0.55 | 4/30 | $ (0.20) | -27% |
| PBR | M | $ 105 | C | 4/27 | 10 | $1.85 | $ 1.85 | 4/30 | $ – | 0% |
| PTR | J | $ 125 | C | 2/27 | 10 | $0.10 | $ 0.90 | 4/30 | $ 0.80 | 800% |
| QCOM | M | $ 45 | C | 4/27 | 4 | $0.85 | $ 2.15 | 4/30 | $ 1.30 | 153% |
| S | J | $ 20 | C | 3/22 | 20 | $1.70 | $ 2.25 | 4/30 | $ 0.55 | 32% |
| SLB | J | $ 80 | C | 4/27 | 10 | $1.60 | $ 1.25 | 4/30 | $ (0.35) | -22% |
| TIE | J | $ 35 | C | 2/1 | 60 | $0.20 | $ 2.20 | 4/30 | $ 3.10 | 1550% |
Things went so well today we even got a win with TSO as we grabbed the $120s beginning at noon and eventually traded up from our $110s but, before we get too excited, we'll see if it sticks!
Our market highs didn't stick, even though we shook off some disappointing data rather well in the morning. Don't blame Europe as they had a good close but we can blame Bush, who came on TV just before the markets tanked:
|
|
|
Day's |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
| Dow | 13,062 | -58 | 12,468 | 12,600 | 13,000 | 13,500 |
| Transports | 2,834 | -47 | 2,825 | 2,900 | 3,000 | 3,250 |
| S&P | 1,482 | -11 | 1,430 | 1,460 | 1,500 | 1,550 |
| NYSE | 9,627 | -77 | 9,218 | 9,465 | 9,600 | 10,000 |
| Nasdaq | 2,525 | -32 | 2,454 | 2,500 | 2,600 | 2,750 |
| SOX | 492 | -5 | 477 | 490 | 500 | 560 |
| Russell | 814 | -15 | 803 | 820 | 850 | 900 |
Doesn't look as bad as you thought it would does it? We got an early indicator from XAL and the Transports that kept us well out of trouble and not even a late plunge in crude could save those indexes from finishing at their lows of the day.
Crude finished down .75 at $65.66 and gold held flat at $683 while the dollar was dead at 81.45.
All in all it was a a disappointing day in the markets but we still finished in very good shape for the month with roughly 4% gains for most of our group. I said this morning that if we can't break out of our levels then it will be time to "Sell in May and go away" but whoever said that obviously didn't know how to trade puts. There will be many opportunities in the week ahead no matter what the market does, it's just a little bit nicer when it goes up!
