Did we pick the right time to get out yesterday or did we jump the gun?
We closed just 20% of the open positions in the short-term virtual portfolio (representing 1/3 of the value) but we stand ready to take another round off the table if the markets are mean to us today. There's nothing wrong with having cash on the side – I'm sure we'll find something good to trade tomorrow.
Whether we deploy that money long or short will depend on the S&P and Happy Trading's chart of the day gives us some very clear goals:
The Nasdaq faces a similar test at 2,525 so we'll be watching both of those indexes very closely.
Today we get the ISM report at 10 AND Ben Bernanke is speaking this morning and he has been a rally saver several times this year already. Maybe it's coincidence that he will begin speaking just as we get housing and ISM numbers but we can expect Fed spin to trump facts, regardless of the numbers.
The Nikkei didn't like our drop in personal spending yesterday and the Nikkei broke back below our critical levels, finishing at 17,274 – slightly above last Wednesday's close. Most other Asian markets were closed and I'm concerned my theory that European cash would find it's way here by default may have a flaw in it – perhaps it was Asian, not European investors, who have been propping up our markets. That could turn a quiet week in Asia into a nightmare for us! Gosh this whole global market thing is so complicated…
Europe is having a holiday too (how do we get in on this thing?) only the FTSE (London) is trading and they have turned down in their afternoon trading as miners drag down the markets. A drop in commodities is just what the doctor ordered for our market so it remains to be seen how things shake out for us. Our virtual portfolio has drifted a lot closer to 50/50 so we watch with interest to see which way the wind blows:
|
|
|
Day's |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
| Dow | 13,062 | -58 | 12,468 | 12,600 | 13,000 | 13,500 |
| Transports | 2,834 | -47 | 2,825 | 2,900 | 3,000 | 3,250 |
| S&P | 1,482 | -11 | 1,430 | 1,460 | 1,500 | 1,550 |
| NYSE | 9,627 | -77 | 9,218 | 9,465 | 9,600 | 10,000 |
| Nasdaq | 2,525 | -32 | 2,454 | 2,500 | 2,600 | 2,750 |
| SOX | 492 | -5 | 477 | 490 | 500 | 560 |
| Russell | 814 | -15 | 803 | 820 | 850 | 900 |
| Hang Seng | 20,318 | closed | 20,200 | 20,600 | 21,000 | 22,000 |
| Nikkei | 17,274 | -125 | 17,400 | 17,500 | 18,300 | 18,500 |
| BSE (India) | 13,872 | closed | 13,200 | 14,000 | 14,725 | 15,000 |
| DAX | 7,408 | closed | 6,900 | 7,000 | 7,400 | 8,000 |
| CAC 40 | 5,960 | closed | 5,650 | 5,800 | 6,000 | 7,000 |
| FTSE | 6,422 | -26 | 6,325 | 6,450 | 6,600 | 7,000 |
Ouch! This chart is turning downright hostile on us! It's all up to the Transports and our buddies at the XAL to shake it off and join the party but the S&P and NYSE look like they're ready to take their toys and go home.
Violence continues in Nigeria but suddenly nobody cares as oil is having a lot of trouble at the $66 mark but, as with the rest of the market, we will adopt a wait and see attitude here as well but I just can't bring myself to go long on the oil plays – even TSO! Tomorrow's inventory report, or rather the reaction to it, will be telling.
The dollar seems to be consolidating for another move down so let's keep an eye on gold. We will get some reports from miners this week and I'm looking at ABX (5/2) for a beat and the Jan $30s for $1.75 seem attractive despite the early panic.
Lets be careful out there today and listen to Uncle Ben!
