I think we have a buy opportunity on semis if the broader market holds up but meanwhile – 20% of profit stops as we need to lighten up anyway.
I’m rolling my WFR Jan $70s to the Jan $65s at $5.10 (+$1.5), well worth it I think. XXX Not selling yet.
Our ISE the Jan $45s have no premium (virtually) at $20.15 so the move is to sell the June $60s for $5.85 and buy back the May $50s at $14.50 XXX
BEAV – yeah that was a hell of a run! Out at $7, up 13,900% since I made .95 on the April $30s!
CSCO – too volatile, doesn’t pay enough for LTP but I’ll like the short-term play when they slam into the big uptrending 200 dma, currently at $25. A pullback and hold at around $26 would make me happy but earnings are next Tuesday so we proably need to do something by the weekend. The June $27.50s aren’t bad at .88 to start a spread but you have to take the $25 puts if they fail at $27 (or on any .15 pullback) XXX
UNH is just giving $55s away for .38 – fun trade only but XXX
SWN – good for the $10KP but bad to track there (takes up space all year) so consider it an LTP that some $10KP profits should go to: Buy the SWN Jan $50s for $3.10 and sell the Sept $45s for $3.35 as next earnings will be early August and you’ll be able to roll Sept for a nice premium whichever way it goes. This will tie up $2 of margin so 5 contracts cost $1K in buying power but Z is long bullish so you may want to just sell 4 (or 3 if you are a daredevil) ahead of earnings. The 5/4 ratio is what I endorse as it saves us if the thing jumps $10 (doubt it).
More aggressive day is to take the Jun $45s for $1.50 as well as the May $40 putss for .45 which won’t save you but should be good for .80 back on a dip.
QLGC (5/3) – expectations not too high and they are coming off 4 beats in a row with no change in estimate since last earnings. They are beaten down with the Semis who I think are going to explode soon anyway and you can split the Jun $17.50s for $1.10 with the July $17.50 puts for .62. Last earnings they dropped $1.50 and flatilined to Feb expiration, then all the way to $16.50. They have no debt and bought back about 15% of the stock last year. So I like that trade but it’s risky as they may flatline XXX
TSO – I can’t believe I bought out my putter!!! $115 caller stoped out at 20% this morning and $105 call is doing well but I’m still selling the $120s on the turn as a mo play. I am taking $120 puts for $3 if I can get them but I hope I don’t have to say how dangerous this is!!!!!!!!!!!! These guys haven’t corrected since the 16th. XXX for the truly insane!